EUR/USD on September 15. COT report. Bulls try to break through important resistance and move towards 1.2000

The EUR/USD pair resumed an extremely weak upward movement within the same lateral channel of 1.17-1.19 on the hourly timeframe on September 14, in which it has been trading for a month and a half. The pair has once again reached the Senkou Span B line, which is fairly strong resistance and rebounded from it. The resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910 lies a little higher, so we can assume that there was a rebound from this area. One way or another, the possibility of resuming the downward movement is very high, as buyers failed to break through the 1.1900 level once again. In addition, we have formed a new downward trend line that has three pivot points. And the third one was formed yesterday after a rebound from the Senkou Span B line. Therefore, the bears can now join the game, and buyers can wait until the trend line has been overcome in order to expect an upward movement above the 1.19 level.

Both linear regression channels are directed upward on the 15-minute timeframe, but they may begin to move down in the near future. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which comes out with a three-day delay and only covers September 2-8, turned out to be absolutely predictable. We expected the report to not show any fundamental changes in the mood of large traders because the EUR/USD pair continues to trade in a sideways channel. The category of non-commercial traders closed 3,073 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 789 Sell-contracts (shorts) at the end of the reporting week. The changes are minimal considering that the total number of contracts for this category exceeds 300,000. We can only note that the net position for players in this category has slightly decreased, which means that the bullish sentiment is starting to weaken, but again minimal. The commercial category was much more active and closed as many as 30,000 contracts during the reporting week. However, we remind you that the actions of non-commercial traders are the most important, since they are considered to be the ones driving the market, and commercial traders usually open positions opposite to them. The last three trading days of last week were not included in the latest COT report, however, no serious price changes were recorded on those days.

The European Union released a report on industrial production on Monday, September 14, which slightly exceeded expert forecasts and could provide restrained support for the euro. Although overall trading in the pair was extremely sluggish. Please remember that the results of the Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference will take place on Wednesday, which is always interesting and potentially very important. Today, traders will have only one report, industrial production in the US for July. If this report does have an impact on the pair's movement, it will be restrained. We believe that trading the pair will also be very weak today unless we receive important information.

We have two trading ideas for September 15:

1) Bulls, in their desire to resume the upward trend, stayed on the upper line of the side channel, as well as several resistances that prevent them from continuing to grow. Therefore, we now recommend considering new long positions only if 1.1884-1.1910 is overcome while aiming for the resistance level 1.2003. Take Profit in this case will be about 60 points.

2) Bears are getting a new opportunity to pull down the euro/dollar pair to the lower area of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, since the 1.1884-1.1910 area has not yet been overcome, but has rebounded from the Senkou line Span B. Thus, we advise you to wait until you settle below the Kijun-sen line (1.1835) and start trading downward with targets at 1.1760 and the support area of 1.1704-1.1728. The potential Take Profit, in this case, is 60 to 90 points.