The euro/dollar pair tried to return to the area above the 1.1702-1.1726 range on the hourly timeframe on September 23, but this attempt failed. And so now the downward movement can continue with targets at the nearest support levels of 1.1663 and 1.1588. The chances of the pair leaving the horizontal channel of $1.17-1.19 are growing every hour. The bears are dominating the market. The question is, do they need macroeconomic or fundamental support to continue moving down? After all, there is no need to wait for positive news from America now, so the main factor that can help sellers at this time is the technical need for a stronger correction. There are still no channels or trend lines in the graph, which slightly complicates the trading process. However, a rebound is present in the 1.1702-1.1726 area and there are two selling targets.
Both linear regression channels are directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, indicating that the downward movement will continue. The EUR/USD pair traded in the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel last week. Therefore, even if there were changes in the mood of large traders, it did not show on the pair's chart. And there were changes. Non-commercial traders closed as many as 17,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and only 1,500 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week (September 9-15). Thus, the sentiment of the most important group of traders, "non-commercial", has shifted towards bearish. The net position for this group also decreased by 15,000 contracts. In turn, this means that professional traders began to look towards buying the US dollar and selling the euro. Commercial traders actively closed both types of contracts. However, we are less interested in this group. We still haven't seen results from all these changes. And the nature of the pair's movement hasn't changed much from September 16 to 22. We still failed to get out of the horizontal channel, and falling towards the 1.1700 level is not something extraordinary. Thus, the new COT report, which will be released on Friday, may signal new changes, but there weren't any on the foreign exchange market during the reporting period. The next few days were more interesting, quotes left the horizontal channel of $1.17-1.19. But these days will not be included in the new COT report.
The European Union published data on business activity on Wednesday, September 23, which for the most part turned out to be weaker than forecasts. Let's start with Germany. In the manufacturing sector, business activity rose to 56.6, but it fell to 49.1 in the services sector. The second indicator is important since its value indicates a decline in the service sector. It's the same throughout the eurozone. Business activity in the industry increased to 53.7, while it fell to 47.6 in the service sector, which also indicates a decline in the region. Both US PMIs were consistently above 50.0. Thus, from our point of view, short positions in the euro in the afternoon are justified. The eurozone may face a slowdown in the economy once again, in particular in the service sector. Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell will make a testimony before the US Congress today, but the content of their speeches is likely to remain unchanged. In addition, the EU summit starts in Europe, at which the issue of saving Greece from the debt crisis will again be resolved. No important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for today. You can only pay attention to the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.
We have two trading ideas for September 24:
1) Buyers continue to remain outside the market, but they can be active at any time. Therefore, we recommend considering long positions if the pair settles above the Kijun-sen line (1.1782), and you can aim for the Senkou Span B line (1.1827) and the resistance area 1.1894-1.1910. Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 100 points.
2) Bears managed to pull down the pair in half to the lower area of the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel and even overcome it. But they immediately ran into the support level of 1.1663, which did not let them go down any further. Thus, you are advised to open new sell-positions in case the 1.1663 level has been overcome, and you can aim for 1.1588. The potential Take Profit in this case is about 50-60 points. Otherwise, the pair will start an upward correction.
