The onset of coronavirus outbreaks in Malaysia is becoming increasingly alarming with the daily case rate rising to around 600 to over 800, marking the country entering a critical phase of COVID-19 containment
According to a report by the Malaysian Ministry of Health yesterday, the latest cases jumped to 847, bringing the total number of active cases to 8,183 with 204 deaths and cured cases with new records, 486.
Public health expert, Dr Safiya Amaran from Universiti Zainal Abidin together with a group of academics and modeling experts at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Professor Dr Shuhaimi Mansor, expects on November 4 active cases to reach a record exceeding 10,000, can reach a maximum of 14,000 to 15,000 cases.
Clearly, the COVID-19 case will peak for a few weeks starting November 4 and will go down the following week until December 23 before being fully leveled in March next year.
If the expectations are true, based on the active case record on October 22, there are almost 2,000 more cases to complete the 10,000 figure.
Thus, the period of two weeks before November is a bitter moment to determine the fate of the entire Malaysian population, with the hope of a continuous decline in cases.
The number of new cases, clusters and cases of sporadic infection will determine the next course of action. If the infection case does not see any decrease, Dr Safiya Amaran said it is appropriate to extend or re-impose the Movement Control Order (PKP).
Selangor has become a zero point because there is a tendency for contagion of sporadic cases of concern, index cases that do not have close contact with other patients. Similar to Sabah, where 90% of active cases are contagious in the community.
The worst case scenario that Malaysia has to face is the same as the situation in Sabah, where the number of active cases is higher than the recovery cases. This situation can cause confusion for all health institutions.
