Japan is printing a bunch of domestic reports this week!
Will yen traders even notice?
Here are the potential catalysts that might move the safe-haven this week!
Domestic data releases
- Yen traders don’t look at Japan’s domestic releases much these days, but notable hits or misses could provide intraday opportunities to trade overall trends
- Leading indicators (Dec 7, 5:00 am GMT) to edge higher from 92.5 to 93.2
- Annual average cash earnings (Dec 7, 11:30 pm GMT) to improve from -0.9% to -0.6%
- Household spending (Dec 7, 11:30 pm GMT) to print at 1.2% (from 3.8%) in October
- Final GDP (Dec 7, 11:50 pm GMT) expected to confirm 5.0% reading in Q3
- Economy Watchers Sentiment (Dec 8, 5:00 am GMT) seen at 54.0 (from 54.5)
- Core machinery orders (Dec 8, 11:50 pm GMT) could gain by 2.5% after 4.4% dip in September
- Preliminary machine tool orders (Dec 9, 6:00 am GMT) seen improving from -5.9% to -3.0%
- BSI manufacturing index (Dec 9, 11:50 pm GMT) to jump from 0.1 to 5.0 in Q4
- Annual PPI (Dec 9, 11:50 pm GMT) to print at -2.0% (from -2.1%)
Safe-haven flows
- Continued dollar weakness could drag USD/JPY to 103.00
- Updates on market themes like vaccine approvals, U.S. stimulus and elections, and Brexit negotiations will continue to affect the demand for safe-havens like the yen
- Top-tier events like China’s trade numbers and BOC and ECB’s policy decisions can also cause volatility among the major yen crosses
Technical snapshot
- Daily Keltner Channels are flagging the yen’s “oversold” conditions against the euro and the franc
- EMAs show that the yen is on short AND long-term downtrends against almost all of its major counterparts
- The dollar continues to lose out against the yen on the daily time frame
- JPY was most volatile against GBP, CAD, NZD, and EUR in the last seven days
