GBP Weekly Forecast – Another Round of Mid-Tier Reports

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 Pound pairs might be off to a slow start this week before the economic calendar action picks up later on.


What’s lined up? Here are the potential sterling catalysts to watch out for:


Mid-tier economic reports

  • Headline U.K. CPI (Jan. 20, 8:00 am GMT) likely improved from 0.3% to 0.5% in December, core CPI probably rose from 1.1% to 1.3%
  • CBI industrial order expectations (Jan. 21, 12:00 pm GMT) to fall from -25 to -35 this month
  • GfK consumer confidence index (Jan. 22, 1:00 am GMT) likely slipped from -26 to -30
  • Retail sales (Jan. 22, 8:00 am GMT) to post 0.8% rebound in December after earlier 3.8% decline

Flash PMI readings

  • Manufacturing PMI likely fell from 57.5 to 53.1 this month
  • Services PMI probably dropped from 49.4 to 45.4
  • Readings below 50.0 reflect contraction, above 50.0 signal expansion
  • Weak results expected as the U.K. imposed stricter lockdown measures late last year to curb the spread of the new strain of the COVID-19 virus

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic paints a mixed picture of pound pairs, placing GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, and GBP/JPY in the overbought zone
  • Sterling has been most volatile against the Kiwi over the last seven days, moving an average of 117 pips per day