Bulls and bears played tug-o-pips and caused wide ranges on a lot of yen crosses last week.
Can this week’s catalysts encourage one-directional moves?
Take a look at the potential market movers for the safe-haven this week:
Domestic data releases
- Upside surprises will support the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s upbeat economic estimates last week
- BOJ’s meeting minutes (Jan 25, 11:50 pm GMT) can hint at the policy changes that BOJ will announce in March
- BOJ’s core CPI (Jan 26, 5:00 am GMT) last printed a 0.1% dip after no growth in October
- Retail sales (Jan 27, 11:50 pm GMT) to jump by 0.5% after a 2.0% drop in November
- Tokyo’s core CPI (Jan 28, 11:30 pm GMT) – a leading indicator for the country’s inflation – to print at -1.4% after a 1.3% decrease?
- Unemployment rate (Jan 28, 11:30 pm GMT) seen rising from 2.9% to 3.0% in December
- Preliminary industrial production (Jan 28, 11:50 pm GMT) seen worsening in December
- Consumer confidence (Jan 29, 11:50 pm GMT) to take more hits in December?
Market risk appetite
- Profit-taking from the previous weeks’ risk-taking can push the safe-haven yen higher across the board
- Major yen crosses are hovering at key resistance levels, which could make it easier for the bears to sell at the first signs of risk aversion
- Updates on U.S. fiscal stimulus bills and Uncle Sam’s GDP can influence overall risk-taking and yen demand
Technical snapshot
- Oscillators aren’t showing a lot of actionable biases in general
- JPY is “oversold” against GBP on the daily time frame
- The yen is also headed for oversold levels against its fellow safe-havens
- EMAs reflect the yen’s bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
- USD/JPY is bearish against short-term EMAs but is on long-term bullish trends on the daily
- JPY was most volatile against AUD, NZD, GBP, and CHF in the last seven days
