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February 22, 2021

AUD Weekly Forecast – No Data? No Problem!

 Ready for another round of comdoll trading?


We only have mid-tier data to look forward to in the Land Down Under, but that doesn’t mean we’ll see snoozers on the Aussie’s charts.


Check out the potential catalysts that might influence the Aussie’s intraweek prices!


Mid-tier releases

  • Construction work done (Feb 24, 12:30 am GMT) expected to improve from -2.6% to 1.5% in Q4 2020
  • Wage price index (Feb 24, 12:30 am GMT) to maintain 0.1% quarterly growth but slow down annually from 1.4% to 1.3%
  • Private capital expenditure (Feb 25, 12:30 am GMT) to see another 0.2% dip after 3.0% decline in Q3 2020

Market risk appetite

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) relatively dovish statements can limit AUD’s gains against other commodity currencies
  • USD’s volatility around Powell’s semi-annual speeches and the U.S. GDP release can influence AUD’s intraweek trends
  • Vaccine rollouts, stimulus talks, and rallies in other high-yielding assets can extend AUD’s gains from the previous week
  • Prices of iron ore – one of Australia’s main exports – surged last week and is vulnerable to some pullback this week

Technical snapshot

  • RSI is flagging the Aussie’s “overbought” conditions against the franc, yen, and the euro on the daily time frame
  • AUD/USD and AUD/NZD are also heading towards overbought levels
  • Exponential moving averages are reflecting the Aussie’s short and long-term bullish trends against its major counterparts
  • AUD was most volatile against the safe-havens and the euro in the last seven days