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February 23, 2021

CAD Weekly Forecast – BOC’s Macklem Under The Spotlight

 Canada won’t be printing market-moving data this week, which means that the Loonie will likely dance to the tune of its counterparts.


So, which catalysts can move the comdoll this week?


I have my eye on these few points:


Macklem’s speech (Feb 23, 5:30 pm GMT)

  • Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem will give an online speech about the pandemic’s impact on the central bank’s outlook
  • BOC has strongly hinted that it won’t raise interest rates until at least 2023
  • Expect some optimism over the vaccine rollout and higher crude oil prices, but also caution and eyes on growth and consumer prices

Overall CAD demand


  • Vaccinations in the U.S. – Canada’s biggest trading partner – is also improving Canada’s economic outlook
  • Optimism over the global recovery is boosting crude oil prospects and the demand for the oil-related Loonie
  • U.S. Treasury yield trends and rallies in other high-yielding assets can extend the Loonie’s gains against its lower-yielding counterparts

Technical snapshot

  • RSI considers CAD/JPY “overbought” on the daily time frame
  • CAD/CHF is also nearing overbought levels
  • CAD may soon reach “oversold” levels against the Aussie
  • EMAs reflect the Loonie’s short and long-term bullish trend against the safe-havens and the euro
  • CAD is still on short and long-term bearish trends against NZD, GBP, and AUD
  • CAD saw the most volatility against the safe-havens and NZD in the last seven days