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February 22, 2021

GBP Weekly Forecast – U.K. Jobs Report Due

 Sterling has been gaining ground on the success of the U.K. vaccine rollout, but will upcoming data shake things up?


Here’s what market watchers are expecting.


Employment data (Feb. 23, 7:00 am GMT)

  • Claimant count change to show 35K increase in joblessness for January
  • Average earnings index to improve from 3.6% to 4.1% for three-month period ending in December
  • Unemployment rate to tick higher from 5.0% to 5.1%
  • Better than expected results (ie. lower claimant count figure or higher average earnings index) could signal a recovery and boost GBP
  • Keep in mind, though, that stricter lockdown measures were imposed in the U.K. around December last year


Technical snapshot

  • Short-term moving averages shows that majority of GBP pairs are in bullish territory.
  • The bullish run on GBP/NZD is weakening while EUR/GBP and GBP/AUD are on bearish grounds.
  • Daily volatility over the last seven days shows that the pound moved the most against NZD at 116 pips, followed by GBP/AUD at 88.7 pips