JPY Weekly Forecast – Eyes on Risk Sentiment

thecekodok

 Japan is printing a bunch of economic reports this week, but yen traders will likely look at risk appetite for direction.


Planning on trading the safe-haven in the next few days?


Check out the market themes you need to know about:


Lower-tier economic releases

  • Japan bank deposits rise at a record pace as firms, households hoard cash
  • Economy Watchers sentiment (Feb 8, 5:00 am GMT) to dip from 35.5 to 32.0 in January
  • Average cash earnings (Feb 8, 11:30 pm GMT) seen improving from -2.2% to -0.7%
  • Preliminary machine tool orders (Feb 9, 6:00 am GMT) could dip from 8.7% to 7.5% in January
  • Monthly producer prices (Feb 9, 11:50 pm GMT) to slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%?

Market risk sentiment


  • The combo of relatively high U.S. Treasury yields and rallies of global equities has limited the yen’s safe-haven appeal in the last few days
  • Trump’s impeachment trial, the pace of vaccinations, and stimulus prospects in the U.S. can affect USD/JPY’s intraweek trends and influence the rest of the yen crosses

Technical snapshot

  • Daily Bollinger Bands show the yen hitting “oversold” levels against the Aussie and Loonie
  • JPY could also soon reach oversold conditions against NZD, GBP, and USD
  • Moving averages reflect the yen’s short and long-term bearish trends across the board
  • The yen saw the most volatility against the comdolls and the pound in the last seven days