What did Governor Powell and his gang talk about in their last meeting? Will it affect the dollar’s intraweek trends in any way?
I have a list of potential catalysts that you won’t want to miss if you’re planning on trading the dollar in the next couple of days!
FOMC meeting minutes (Feb 17, 7:00 pm GMT)
- After their meeting in late January, Fed Governor Powell shared that it’s “too early to focus on tapering dates” even as they remain optimistic over the reopening of the economy
- USD rallied at the time, but that was mostly because traders were staying away from riskier bets as Reddit-inspired moves are inspiring fears that big players like hedge funds would need to liquidate to cover their “meme stocks” losses
- Watch out for any members wanting to talk about tapering, which could boost USD against its counterparts
Closely watched economic releases
- NY manufacturing index (Feb 16, 1:30 pm GMT) to improve from 3.5 to 5.3 in February
- Retail sales (Feb 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to print at 0.9% (from -0.7%) in January
- Core retail sales could rebound by 0.7% after a 1.4% dip
- Annual PPI (Feb 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to remain at 0.8%, while the core figure could speed up from 1.2% to 1.3%
- Industrial production (Feb 17, 2:15 pm GMT) seen slowing down from 1.6% to 0.5%
- Philly Fed manufacturing index (Feb 18, 1:30 pm GMT) to print at 23.0 after 26.5 reading in January
- Initial jobless claims (Feb 18, 1:30 pm GMT) expected to drop from 793K to 765K
- Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 19, 2:45 pm GMT) could dip from 59.2 to 57.5 in February
Overall dollar demand
- Traders could turn their focus back on the stimulus bill that’s widely expected to pass. Headlines on its progress could boost risk appetite and weigh on the safe-haven dollar
- U.S. Treasury yields will continue to matter for USD and gold traders
Technical snapshot
- The dollar is about to hit “oversold” RSI levels against the pound
- USD/JPY could soon reach “overbought” RSI levels on the daily
- The dollar remains near neutral levels against the franc and the euro
- EMAs reflect the dollar’s short and long-term bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
- USD/JPY is still trading below the 200 EMA, but watch the moving average in case the short-term bullish momentum translates to a longer-term uptrend
- The dollar has seen the most volatility against the comdolls and the pound in the last seven days
