The EUR/USD pair traded in absolute flat all day on March 29. In principle, this is noticeable "from a distance of half a kilometer on a dark night." Both linear regression channels on the 5-minute timeframe are directed to the downside, still signaling a formally downward trend, but at the same time their slope is such that it was difficult to count on a general downward movement of more than 20 points yesterday. In general, no important report during the day, not a single important event or information. And the euro/dollar pair was traded according to the calendar of events. The movement was more or less during the evening. Nothing has changed when the European session opened, the trading range increased by five points, and the overall volatility of the day was 33 points. It is clear that it was extremely difficult to earn money in such conditions yesterday. Nevertheless, two buy signals were formed during the day. Both in the form of a price rebound from the extremum level of 1.1763. The price went up 18 points after the first signal formed, and then by 14 points after the second. It is clear that as a result, both buy deals that traders could open would have closed in zero profit, because the price did not continue to rise, but they also could not leave the area below the 1.1763 level during the day.
Two rebounds from the 1.1763 level are even visible on the hourly timeframe as a whole. However, this timeframe shows bounces from both the previous day and Friday. Thus, the bears have already failed to surpass this level twice, which casts doubt on the pair's succeeding downward movement. The downward trend line keeps the downtrend, however bears are not that strong at the moment. In terms of the pair's movement, the situation may change for the better on Tuesday, but macroeconomic reports from the European Union and the US will not be released again. We have already wondered in our fundamental reviews as to why the dollar is growing at this time and we came to the conclusion that technical reasons seem the most logical. Thus, technical levels and lines are more important now. In general, we advise you to trade from important levels and lines that are plotted on the hourly timeframe. The closest level is 1.1763. Signals can be rebounds or when levels and lines are surpassed. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false or a sharp reversal occurs after some fundamental or macroeconomic event. However, the latter is unlikely to threaten traders on Tuesday, March 30.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
Recall that the EUR/USD pair did not rise or fall during the last reporting week (March 16-22). Despite the fact that the downward movement resumed later, at that moment there was a flat. And the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which precisely describes that period of time, recorded small changes in the sentiment of all groups of traders. For example, the most important "non-commercial" group closed about 1,700 buy contracts (longs) and 953 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for professional traders remained practically unchanged. And along with it and the mood of the major players. As a reminder, the last few COT reports have signaled that bullish sentiment has significantly weakened among a group of non-commercial traders. This is eloquently signaled by the green line of the first indicator. Its tangible decline began in February and continues to this day, which, in principle, coincides with the euro/dollar pair's movement. And in general, we could even conclude that the upward trend is over, since, recall, that its end has been brewing since September 2020, when the green and red lines of the first indicator moved as far apart as possible. But then the factor of a huge increase in the gap between the money supply of the US and the EU played into the hands of the euro. The same could happen in 2021, given the plans of US authorities to inject another $6-7 trillion into the economy. Thus, the technical picture and COT reports now speak in favor of the quotes' decline, but the foundation warns that the dollar may fall.
