Analysis of previous deals:
The GBP/USD pair traded quite understandably on the 30-minute timeframe, but, unfortunately, only on this timeframe. The upward trend is still preserved, as the upward channel remains relevant. And, as you can see, the price rebounded from its lower border twice on Thursday and Friday. If the signal on Thursday formed closer to the night and should not have been processed, then the Friday signal was formed during the day and it was possible to work with it. The rebound was very accurate, and after forming a buy signal, the price went up exactly 40 points, which would have been enough for the Take Profit to trigger. In any case, any open positions should have been closed before the market closed on Friday and the profit on the trade would have been only slightly smaller anyway. But I managed to make money on this signal - and this is very good. The second signal was formed by the MACD indicator, turning up (circled). However, at the time when it was formed, a long position had already been opened, so, of course, it should not have been duplicated. As for macroeconomic reports and fundamental background, in addition to the ignored PMIs and Janet Yellen's speech in the UK, PMIs in services and manufacturing were also published, as well as a report on retail trade. Considering the fact that all four reports were positive and exceeded their forecasted values, the pound sterling showed a very modest growth after their release, no more than 35 points, so there is doubt that the markets generally reacted to them.
Trading signals were scattered on the 5-minute timeframe, and the most important thing was not to get confused in all this splendor. Let's start in order and analyze all the signals that theoretically should have been processed. At the very beginning of the European session, quotes rebounded from the 1.3865 level, which served as a signal for short positions. This signal turned out to be false, and one could lose 16 points on it. Further, a buy signal was generated once the pair surpassed 1.3865 level from the bottom up. Long positions should be opened on it, which closed at a profit of 9 points, since a rebound followed from the nearest level of 1.3885, at which new sell orders should be opened. However, in this case, the price could not overcome the closest level of 1.3865 and the deal had to be closed manually with a profit of 8 points. The rebound from the 1.3865 level was a signal for new long positions, which should have been opened again, and the price again failed to overcome the 1.3885 level and bounced off it again!!! Thus, another 8 points of profit and a new sell signal, which should also be worked out with short positions. However, this time the signal turned out to be false, and the price did not even reach the nearest level of 1.3865. A loss of 11 points was received. After that, the 1.3885 level should be treated with caution, since the price reached it three times and never managed to go down more than 20 points. Therefore, a new rebound from this level should not have been worked out, but the next sell signal - consolidation below the 1.3865 level - should have been worked out, and it brought about 16 points of profit, since the nearest level (1.3838) was reached, and from it it was executed again, an ideal rebound in terms of accuracy, which should have been interpreted as a signal to buy and open long positions. As a result, the price rose to the 1.3865 level again and immediately surpassed it, so the longs should have been left open, and the price eventually returned to the 1.3885 level, where long positions should have been closed at 40 points profit, since at that time closing time was approaching. In total, on a 5-minute timeframe, it was possible to earn about 50 points, despite the huge number of signals.
How to trade on Monday:
On Thursday, we recommend trading according to the upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. So tomorrow it will be necessary to wait for new buy signals in the form of upward reversals of the MACD indicator or rebounds from the lower border of the channel. This indicator is currently near the zero level and can form potentially strong signals. In America, only the durable goods orders report is scheduled for April 26, while the UK the news calendar is empty. The important levels on the 5 minute timeframe are 1.3838, 1.3865, 1.3890, 1.3913 and 1.3947. The price can bounce off them or surpass them. As before, Take Profit is set at a distance of 40-50 points on a 30-minute timeframe, the target on the 5-minute timeframe is the closest level (if it is located more than 20 points). If the nearest level is too far, then you are advised to maintain the deal in manual mode, tracking changes in the market. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven.
