The GBP/USD pair moved in quite a chaotic matter on the 30-minute timeframe on Monday. The upward trend continues, which is signaled by the upward channel. However, in the last two trading days (including today), the pair somehow changes direction too often, which greatly complicates the trading process. Today, the MACD indicator generated only one buy signal, but it was formed in the evening, so it did not work out, although after it was formed the pair went up by around 50 points. And here's another distinctive feature - today there were quite active trades at the Asian session at night, which usually does not happen. In general, it was not the most successful and auspicious day. We managed to avoid losses on the 30-minute timeframe, since no signals were generated. But the situation is a little worse on the 5-minute timeframe.
On the 5-minute timeframe, five signals were formed during the day, most of which were false. Let's start with the fact that four signals were formed at once around the 1.3913 level. In order not to analyze each one separately, let's say that novice traders could work out the first two signals, buy and sell. Unfortunately, they turned out to be false, which led to losses of 14 and 16 points. It was no longer necessary to work with this level, since two false signals eloquently show that the markets do not perceive this level as important. The last fifth signal formed around the 1.3865 level. The rebound from it was clear, worth working out, but about half an hour before its formation in America, a report on durable goods orders was published. This indicator was not in favor of the US dollar, as its value turned out to be below forecasts. Moreover, it is much lower. Accordingly, after it was published, one could expect the dollar to fall. And it happened, but upon closer examination it becomes clear that it began 35 minutes after the signal emerged. Thus, it is impossible to say unequivocally that the markets reacted to the report, and the signal itself did not work out either. However, with a high degree of probability, it would not have been possible to earn money on this signal, since the pair did not go up 40 points and did not manage to reach the nearest level of 1.3913.
How to trade on Tuesday:
On Tuesday, we recommend trading again according to the upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. The pair continues to be inside the rising channel. And so, tomorrow it will be necessary to wait for new buy signals in the form of upward reversals of the MACD indicator or rebounds from the lower border of the channel. The indicator is now close to the zero level and can form potentially strong signals. In regards to reports, we only have the US consumer confidence indicator that is set to be published tomorrow, while the news calendar for Britain is empty. Thus, the macroeconomic background will have practically no effect on the pair's movement tomorrow. The important levels on the 5 minute timeframe are 1.3838, 1.3865, 1.3913, 1.3928 and 1.3947. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points on a 30-minute timeframe, on a 5-minute timeframe, the target is the nearest level (if it is located more than 20 points). If the nearest level is too far away, then you are advised to maintain the deal in manual mode, tracking changes in the market. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven.
