Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 25.2497
The British pound continues to trade in the "swing" mode, and this applies to both the 4-hour timeframe and smaller timeframes. Yesterday, we understood that the "swing" is observed even on the 5-minute timeframe, so now may not be the best time to work with the pound/dollar pair. And this is the first and most important conclusion that can be made at this time. Even by the pair's movement in recent days, it is noticeable that the price has crossed the moving average line several times. Thus, there is simply no clear trend now. Yesterday, the pair went up a few dozen points, but this does not mean it will not collapse down by 150. That is, making forecasts now is a very thankless task. Well, we have already talked about the fundamental background a hundred times. Two factors – "speculative" and the money supply in the United States – continue to maintain the pound's leading position in pair with the dollar. All other events, factors, reports, news, and reports do not play a significant role.
They do not play a significant role in the foreign exchange market. But for the future of Great Britain, it is very important. First, May 6 is approaching, when the local parliament elections will be held in Scotland, in which everyone expects a convincing victory for Nicola Sturgeon's Scottish National Party. And the more votes Sturgeon's party gets, the more likely it is that the First Minister will continue to pressure London in the near future, trying to obtain permission to hold an independence referendum. However, in any case, she has already promised her voters a referendum before the end of 2023. Secondly, the conflict on the island of Ireland does not subside. Riots continue. At the same time, the situation is already going too far, and the island is getting hot and dangerous. Although last week senior officials in Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Scotland called on London to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the crisis, London is still inactive. As a result, this week, several public figures and four former British ministers wrote an open letter to Boris Johnson to draw attention to the crisis in the rebellious region as quickly as possible. "The lesson of the last 50 or more years in Northern Ireland is that if there is no forward movement, everything does not stand still: it starts backward. The UK government has a responsibility to ensure that this does not happen because there is nothing more dangerous than a political vacuum," an excerpt from this letter reads. Recall that the long-standing conflict between Protestants and Catholics was only extinguished in 1998 by the Good Friday agreement, according to which the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland should not appear. However, the UK's withdrawal from the EU means that such a border should appear. Boris Johnson came up with a brilliant plan on paper, according to which the border will pass through the Irish Sea, and there will be no inspections and checks on the island. In part, this plan worked since the Irish and Northern Irishmen can move freely. But the problem has already arisen for the business sector, as Ireland and Northern Ireland still found themselves on opposite sides of the barrier. There were customs inspections of goods, duties, and other "charms" of the absence of a single market. Plus, since the de facto border runs through the Irish Sea, Northern Ireland seems to have remained on the side of the European Union. That is, now the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland and between the UK and the European Union runs through the Irish Sea, in fact separating the entire island of Ireland from the rest of the UK. We have previously said that the people of Northern Ireland themselves want to remain part of the EU single market, and for the next 25 years, they see themselves outside the United Kingdom. Some 76% of people surveyed in Northern Ireland believe that the long-standing dispute between Protestants and Catholics remains unresolved but only put on pause. A new conflict can break out at any time. Only 5% of the population in Northern Ireland trusts the government of Boris Johnson. Thus, the situation is explosive, and it is difficult even to guess how a new possible conflict will end.
By the way, the pound may continue to be thrown from side to side precisely because now the UK is in a maelstrom of events and various factors that in one way or another should have an impact on the country itself, on its economy, and the exchange rate of its currency. Thus, what is happening now with the pound/dollar currency pair is partly even logical. Recall that the pair's quotes have moved away from their 3-year highs in global terms, but they have been trading without a specific direction for several months. Although, now, as we have already said, there are a huge number of factors. But it seems that only two of them continue to play an essential role in the foreign exchange market. We talked about them in the first part of the article.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 77 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Wednesday, April 28, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3824 and 1.3978. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a new round of downward movement within the "swing."
Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3855 S2 – 1.3794 S3 – 1.3733
Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3916 R2 – 1.3977 R3 – 1.4038
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair started an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to trade for an increase with a target of 1.3978 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders should be opened if the price is fixed below the moving average with a target of 1.3794 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Also, given the continuing "swing," it is not the worst decision to refrain from trading the pair for a few days.
