The EUR/USD pair continued to move down on Friday, however, volatility has already decreased compared to Wednesday and Thursday. Nevertheless, it was still high (for the EUR/USD pair), as it reached 79 points. Quotes bounced from the level of 1.1924 twice during the day, which is the corrected level of 1.1915. Simply put, on Friday, the level was 1.1915, not 1.1924. However, in any case, we only consider signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute timeframe, which are formed in a clear trend movement. There is a trend now, but it is so strange and unstable that we still do not recommend trading using the MACD indicator. At this time, despite the strong movement, it is impossible to form either a trend line or a channel, and the movement is practically recoilless, so the MACD indicator will not generate strong signals anyway. In addition, the reasons for such a strong growth of the US dollar raise questions. Recall that the downward movement began after the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, although the US central bank did not take any serious decisions and did not make such serious statements that the dollar rose by 250 points in 2.5 days.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture of Friday already looks far from ideal. Several different signals were formed during the day, but not all of them were accurate and correct. It all started with the formation of a sell signal near the level of 1.1915, which was formed right at the opening of the European session. This signal turned out to be false, as prices failed to work out the target level of 1.1878 and returned to their original positions during the day. But at the same time, there was no clear fixation of the price above the level of 1.1915. However, this is not important, since a sell trade was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven (the price went down 15 points after the position was opened). Further, the price spent several hours near the 1.1915 level and finally fixed below it. It was a sell signal, but it was extremely fuzzy and could not be worked out, even though this time the level of 1.1878 was worked out. However, novice traders still had the right to open short positions. In this case, they could have earned about 27 pips. Further, a rebound followed from the level of 1.1878, which could be regarded as a buy signal, and it also turned out to be false: within an hour the quotes crossed the level of 1.1878. Therefore, there was a loss of 14 points. After a new overcoming of the 1.1878 level from top to bottom, it was also possible to open a sell trade, but it was also closed by Stop Loss at breakeven, and the price did not reach the next target level. Thus, in the best case, novice traders could earn about 10-15 points on Friday, in the worst case, they could get a loss of 14 points.
Trading tips for Monday:
A strong downward movement continues on the 30-minute timeframe, without a trend line or channel. Thus, on this timeframe, we continue to expect the formation of a clear trend and do not recommend using the MACD indicator to search for signals. On a 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1786, 1.1836, 1.1878, 1.1924 and 1.1943. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Monday, no important macroeconomic events are scheduled either in the European Union or in the United States. Nevertheless, in Europe there will be a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, which may have a certain impact on the foreign exchange market.
