The EUR/USD pair moved very actively on Friday. However, only thanks to statistics from America. Yes, for the second day in a row the EUR / USD pair moved solely on the basis of macroeconomic reports from the US. This is clearly seen on the 5-minute timeframe, where in the first half of the day (when reports were also published in the EU) the market simply stood in one place. However, that all changed in the afternoon when data on the US labor market and unemployment rate were released. I would like to note right away that the unemployment rate, although it dropped from 6.1% to 5.8%, which is very good for the economy, did not provide any support to the American currency. Traders paid attention only to the NonFarm Payrolls report, which was not even a failure. Its value was only slightly below the predicted value, but it was enough for the markets to rush back to sell the dollar, which they had been actively buying days earlier. Thus, at the end of Thursday and Friday, everything remained in place. As for trading on the 30-minute timeframe, it was necessary to trade down, according to the new descending channel. However, the MACD indicator did not form a single standing sell signal during Friday.
It is very, very eloquent on the 5-minute timeframe. It is perfectly clear that the euro/dollar pair stood in one place throughout the European trading session, although, for example, the retail sales report for April was published(the first tick). However, the movement began only in the US trading session, when the NonFarm Payrolls report was published(the third tick). It was this report that provoked a strong upward movement, which was not possible for novice traders to work out. No signals were generated during the European session. On the American side-three, but they were all formed after the publication of important statistics, that is, to predict where the pair will move and with what force was not possible. We do not recommend novice traders to trade during such important publications, so all three signals should be ignored. And in any case, it was very difficult to manage to enter the market on one of these signals. Thus, trades on Friday, despite the strong movement, should not have been opened.
Trading tips for Monday:
A new downtrend persists on the 30-minute timeframe, so it is recommended to track the sell signals from the MACD indicator. At the moment, this indicator is very high, so you should wait for it to discharge to zero before looking for new signals. Also, the price is located near the upper line of the descending channel, so theoretically you could try to sell the pair on a rebound from this line. But we think it's too risky in the current circumstances. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.2092, 1.2104, 1.2133, 1.2159, 1.2181 and 1.2215. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss-to break even when the price passes in the right direction 15-20 points. At 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level, as long as it is not too close or too far away. If it is located-then you should act on the situation. No major publications or major events are scheduled for Monday in America and the European Union. Thus, the movement of the pair may be sluggish, and the volatility may be weak.
