The EUR/USD pair continued to trade quite calmly on Friday. If it were not for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the afternoon, we would probably again see volatility in the amount of 40 points. But the head of the Fed could not help provoking a reaction from the market, since the markets had been waiting for his speech in Jackson Hole all week. Another thing is that Powell did not tell the markets anything important, as we expected. As a reminder to novice traders, the markets are waiting for specific dates and plans from the Fed to cut the quantitative stimulus program. That is, tightening monetary policy. However, representatives of the Fed still doubt the expediency of this step at the present time. At the very least, the fact that Jerome Powell did not provide any important information on this issue on Friday suggests that the markets will have to wait for the September Fed meeting. Also, an hour and a half earlier, the US published reports on the expenses and incomes of the American population, which provoked a slight strengthening of the US currency. Both of these events are marked with check marks in the illustration below. On the 30-minute timeframe, the pair first consolidated below the trend line, after which it resumed its upward movement. Movements on this timeframe continue to be as inconvenient as possible.
The picture of the pair's movements on the 5-minute timeframe was extremely complex on Friday. The first buy signal that formed during the European trading session was very inaccurate and could be ignored altogether. However, even if the newcomers opened long positions on it, in any case, at the beginning of the US session, they should have been manually closed, as the time for the publication of reports in America and Powell's speech was approaching. Thus, neither profit nor loss was obtained on the buy deal. Further, all other trading signals of the day were formed either during important events, or immediately after them, when the movement had already ended. Therefore, it was definitely not necessary to work out all these signals. Thus, in fact, no trade was opened on the super-important Friday. However, novice traders had to conclude: the Fed does not plan to announce the curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program in the near future. Therefore, it will be quite problematic for the US dollar to rise in price in the coming weeks.
Trading tips for Monday:
The EUR/USD pair continues to be in an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but the trend line is broken, and the upward movement itself is very weak. In seven trading days, only 140 points were traversed. That is, 20 points a day. Since we again do not have an actual trend line, the signals from the MACD indicator should be ignored again until a new trend line or channel is formed. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1730, 1.1756, 1.1779, 1.1802, 1.1831. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Monday, neither the United States nor the European Union is scheduled to have a single important report or event. Therefore, the volatility tomorrow may be extremely low again, and the movements - very weak.
