Without major catalysts ahead on the forex calendar, we’re checking out AUD/NZD for its solid downtrend and potential volatility catalysts from Australia to get trend traders in at better prices.
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at a strong downtrend in AUD/CHF, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
Intermarket Update:
Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 15745.41 -0.10%
FTSE: 7132.30 +0.13%
S&P 500: 4432.35 -0.09%
NASDAQ: 14860.18 +0.16% US 10-YR: 1.324% +0.036
Bund 10-YR: -0.457% +0.002
UK 10-YR: 0.588% +0.002
JPN 10-YR: 0.009% -0.002 Oil: 66.78 -2.19%
Gold: 1,730.40 -1.85%
Bitcoin: $46,307 +5.90%
Ethereum: $3,159.05 +5.77%
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Dow retreats slightly from record as broad market is little changed
U.S. risks fiscal cliff in Fall amid partisanship on debt
Senators have a deal on the crypto amendment, and Treasury won’t oppose it
JOLTS Job openings for June: 10.073M vs. 9.48M previous
ECB must tighten policy if needed to counter inflation, Weidmann says
Sentix Investor Survey: 22.2 vs. 29.8 prev; Surprisingly little cheering, surprisingly few fears
Bitcoin retakes $46,000 as rebound continues
Australia expands COVID lockdown over concern virus has spread from Sydney
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
Japan Current Account at 11:50 pm GMT
Australia New Home Sales at 12:00 am GMT (Aug. 10)
Australia Business Confidence, Building Permits at 1:30 am GMT (Aug. 10)
Japan Eco Watchers Survey at 5:00 am GMT (Aug. 10)
Euro area ZEW Economic Sentiment at 9:00 am GMT (Aug. 10)
If you’re not familiar with the forex market’s main trading sessions, check out our Forex Market Hours tool.
What to Watch: AUD/NZD
The forex calendar is looking light on potential major market movers, but fortunately for Aussie traders, volatility may pick up on the latest housing & business sentiment data. That makes the overall downtrend in AUD/NZD one to watch as any volatility from those events could bring the market back to more desirable levels to play the trend.
On the one hour chart above, we can see that the pair has been in consolidation mode over the past few sessions, with the bears steadily holding the 1.0500 major psychological level as the top of the range and the bulls defending the 1.0470 area well.
Now, this can be see as a potential consolidation break opportunity, and if the Australian data gives us a huge surprise, then that’s how we’d look at it. But given that the data isn’t likely to be major moves for the Aussie, we’ll stick to the trend setup for now.
So, unless we see a major positive string of Australian data later, any pop higher may be see as a selling opportunity, both for fundamental and technical traders. Fundamental players are likely pricing in the lockdown situation in Australia as a negative for their economy, while technical traders are looking to play the solid trend lower.
In that situation where the market retests the Fibonacci area, we’ll be on the look out for bearish reversal patterns to potentially take a short-term or medium-term short position in AUD/NZD.
