Today, the most important reports on unemployment and the labor market will be published in the United States. It can be recalled that most traders and investors are waiting for strong statistics, even though the ADP report this week turned out to be not just weak, but a failure. However, we have already said that ADP and NonFarm Payrolls reports almost never correlate with each other. Therefore, the weakness of ADP does not mean that today's report will also be weak. However, considering the forecasts of experts (almost 900 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector), we believe that it will be very difficult to meet or exceed them. And if the actual value of the report is lower than the forecast, this will be a new reason for the markets to get rid of the US currency. As for the stock markets, everything is terribly stable here and even a weak NonFarm report is unlikely to disappoint investors enough to start dumping shares of leading US companies. All three leading indexes, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, continue to be near their maximum values and update their own highs every couple of days. Thus, the US stock market is now more dependent on the Fed and its actions, rather than on macroeconomic statistics.
However, there is another factor that can have an impact on the US stock market in the very long term. This factor is political. Simply put, who is the president now, and who will be him in four years, is very exciting for all investors. It's no secret that the Republicans support the interests of the rich more, try to reduce their taxes and make various concessions (which Donald Trump did at the time), but the Democrats usually support the working class by reducing taxes for them or trying to help them through various social programs, moving at the same time a higher tax burden on the rich. So far, Democrat Joe Biden is not very good at following this unwritten rule. His initiative to raise taxes for millionaires and large corporations is still failing, and the "infrastructure" package has been reduced by more than 2 times compared to the original proposal. Along with this, Joe's approval ratings are also falling. At the moment, this figure is already 46%, although it was 49% a month earlier. According to most experts, such a decrease in confidence is the result of ineffective decisions in the field of combating the "coronavirus" and the energy sector. Experts also note that the successful fight against COVID was almost the main slogan of Joe Biden in the election race. Now, a new wave of the pandemic is beginning to overwhelm the United States, so many Americans are wondering whether the fight against the pandemic is effective under Biden.
