August 23, 2021

The Fed is unlikely to make a hasty decision regarding the QE

 Almost all the attention of the foreign exchange market is now focused on the Fed and Jerome Powell personally. However, not only for the foreign exchange market, the mood and rhetoric of the Fed are of great importance. Stock indices, which have managed to show the strongest upward dynamics in the last one and a half to two years, are also very much interested in how the Fed's monetary policy will change in the near future. We believe that almost the main reason for the growth of US stock indices is the filling of the economy with trillions of dollars as part of incentive programs. Thus, a lot really depends on how and when the Fed or Powell will announce the curtailment of QE. Also, it is important to keep in mind that the coronavirus and its new strains continue to spread in the United States. Last week, almost 1 million new diseases were recorded in America. Over the past 28 days, 3.2 million Americans have become ill and 17 thousand more have died. Thus, in the United States, we are again talking about a full-scale wave of the epidemic. And a new outbreak, of course, can affect the macroeconomic indicators. And macroeconomic indicators may force the Fed representatives to reconsider their plans.

The next Fed meeting is scheduled for September 22. Before this date, the US will publish a report on NonFarm Payrolls (September 3) and on inflation (September 14). It can be recalled that these two indicators are now the most important in the issue of changing the parameters of the Fed's monetary policy. Inflation continues to hold near 13-year highs, and NonFarm companies have shown an increase of 1 million employees in the last two months. Therefore, if the next inflation report shows a slowdown, and the number of NonFarms decreases sharply, then the Fed may postpone its expected decision to end the stimulus. This is simply because it can be concluded that the pace of economic recovery is slowing down. Therefore, from our point of view, before the end of 2021, it will be announced that QE will be curtailed, but it is far from certain that it will be in September. As for the Jackson Hole symposium, it is unlikely that Powell will be frank there. This event is more of a scientific nature, so it is unlikely that the head of the Fed will choose it to announce a change in the monetary policy of the regulator. However, Powell can provide the markets with several hints at once. For example, he may talk about a pandemic, hinting that if the number of diseases continues to grow, then talk about tightening monetary policy will have to be postponed for a later time. Powell can also talk about the labor market, hinting at an approximate time when it will recover completely or will be close to it, which can make it clear when the Fed intends to move from words to deeds.