September 30, 2021

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 30. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. The pair collapsed to 16th level, Lagarde and Powell had nothing to do with it

 The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement on Wednesday. Just like the days before, nothing interesting in macroeconomic or fundamental terms happened either in the United States or in the European Union. Even more, another portion of speeches by high-ranking officials took place, which did not give the markets any new and important information. In principle, earlier we have already focused the attention of traders on the fact that any head of the central bank speaks at least five times a month, or even more. However, trends in the economy and monetary policy do not change five times a month, so that every speech of any high-ranking official provokes a movement. Thus, such events should always be treated a little coolly, but not overlooked. Meanwhile, the pair's quotes have already dropped to the 16th level, although a couple of weeks ago it was very difficult to believe in it. Despite the fact that there was not a single macroeconomic publication during the day, the pair was in a downward movement almost from the very morning. Let's take a look at the trading signals and understand how the pair should be traded. The first sell signal was not strong, as it took more than an hour and a half to form. Nevertheless, the pair settled below the extremum level of 1.1666, after which it first reached the support level of 1.1646 (there was no need to take profit near it, as it was too fast to the point of opening a trade), and then it dropped to the extremum level of 1.1612, from which it did not even bounce back. Nevertheless, it was already late afternoon, so the short position could be manually closed around this level of about 55 points. The pair showed quite high volatility for itself yesterday - as much as 80 points.

You see that the euro/dollar pair continues to move down on the hourly timeframe, and has even slightly strengthened in recent days. At least at this time, quotes are moving away from the trend line, which is still relevant (for almost a month now). Thus, there is no reason to believe that the downward trend will end. Consolidating below 1.1612 will make it possible to count on a new strengthening of the dollar even more. On Thursday, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.1612, 1.1666, 1.1704, 1.1750, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1764) and Kijun-sen (1.1684) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. One more speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on September 30, as well as another speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, both can be distinguished from the important events. Potentially, these are again quite important events, but everything will again depend on what the high-ranking officials say. On the first three trading days of this week, they also made speeches, but there was never any reaction to their statements and statements. Accordingly, there is a high probability that the same picture will be observed today. The European Union will also publish a report on the unemployment rate in August, which, according to experts, may drop to 7.5%, but this is not a report that can provoke at least some reaction from traders. Most likely, it will be ignored.

The mood of non-commercial traders became less bullish again during the last reporting week (September 14-20). This is eloquently signaled by the green line of the first indicator, which is responsible for displaying the net position of the "non-commercial" group of traders. Thus, the most important category of traders at this time continues to look towards short positions on the euro in the medium term. Nevertheless, they have not been able to go beyond the "zero line" for several weeks already. Thus, their sentiment does not change to bearish, and the pair cannot overcome the 1.1700 level. Consequently, everything rests not only on the level of 1.1700, but also on the mood of big traders who have been very reluctant to sell the euro in recent weeks. It is also clearly seen that their net position has been declining for a long time (second indicator), but at the same time it cannot become negative. As a result, the pair has been trading in the range of 1.1700 - 1.2300 for about nine months. While facing the horizontal channel, the movement for this period of time can not be called flat.