The EUR/USD pair traded extremely weakly again during the last trading day of the week. Despite the fact that there was a surge in volatility at the beginning of the US trading session, the total volatility of the day was 44 points... That is, this value of the indicator is great for a "dull Monday," but not for the oversaturated macroeconomic statistics on Friday. Basically, you just need to glance at the events calendar to understand: the markets could work out at least 4-5 reports. However, neither the index of business activity in the service sector of the eurozone (figure "1"), nor retail sales in the eurozone (figure "2"), nor the index of business activity in the US services sector (figure "4") have any influence on the course of trading. provided. The reports on unemployment and wages in the United States were also ignored, which were published at the same time with the Nonfarm report (number "3"). Thus, the only thing that traders reacted to was the NonFarm Payrolls report. At first everything was logical and expected. The dollar began to fall when it became known that the number of new, created jobs outside the agricultural sector reached only 235,000 in August. But it stopped falling after five minutes, and the quotes plowed down exactly the same amount as before. Thus, even the reaction to the NonFarm Payrolls report can be called a "reaction" at a stretch. After all, the quotes, in fact, remained in the same place at the end of the day, on which they opened that day. In general, nothing has changed. The only thing that can be noted is the reduced likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in the coming months.
The EUR/USD pair continues to move within the rising channel on the hourly timeframe and is currently trading near its upper border. The volatility of the pair remains very low, so one cannot count on strong movements now. In general, a correction to the Kijun-sen line and the lower border of the rising channel is now likely. Especially on Monday, when there are no important events. On Monday, we continue to draw traders' attention to important levels and lines - 1.1797, 1.1857, 1.1894, 1.1922, as well as Senkou Span B (1.1754) and Kijun-sen (1.1845) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds and breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important reports in the US and the EU on September 6. Thus, traders will have nothing to pay attention to during the day. However, this is not important now, as the volatility of the pair still remains extremely weak, and the markets continue to ignore most of the macroeconomic reports. In the current situation, one can only hope for a small profit during the day and wait for the movements to become stronger.
The EUR/USD pair increased by 50 points during the last reporting week (August 24-30). However, despite the fact that the European currency has been growing for two weeks now, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports continue to signal a reduction in the net position of non-commercial traders, which can only indicate a weakening of the bullish sentiment. The net position of the "non-commercial" group has already dropped to almost zero, which means almost complete equality in the number of open contracts for longs (buying) and shorts (selling) of big players. If we draw the most banal conclusion, then the major players are now looking towards selling the euro. But, as we have already said many times, during such a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, the EUR/USD pair dropped only 600 points. Recall that the entire upward trend is valued at 1,700 points. So for now, we can only draw the same conclusion as before: big players may be inclined to sell off the euro, but the cash infusions from the Federal Reserve, which have not yet stopped, continue to level the imbalance in supply and demand for the European currency. Simply put, the Fed continues to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, corny increasing the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and provoking a rise in inflation. Therefore, commercial players can sell off the euro, but the money supply of the dollar is growing at about the same rate (or even more), which leads to a very modest fall of the euro against the dollar, which can end at any moment. The "non-commercial" group opened 11,000 new contacts for shorts during the reporting week, and the total number of Buy and Sell contracts is now in the ratio of 192.5 thousand - 180.5 thousand.
