The pound/dollar pair continued to move rather sluggishly on Monday. From the low to the high of yesterday, only 54 points were passed, which is not just a little, but very little. However, we have already said more than once that the British currency "fell ill" with the disease of weak volatility following the euro. So, now the volatility, equal to 54 points, is no longer very surprising. Although for the pound/dollar pair, the normal value is 100-130 points per day. There were no macroeconomic statistics in either the US or the UK on Monday. No major fundamental events. Nevertheless, the pair worked out an important line (Kijun-sen) during the day, so several trading signals were generated. Unfortunately, the very first signal turned out to be false. The price has settled below the critical line. Not very deep, but, nevertheless, traders could interpret it exactly as a consolidation. Thus, the first trade of the day should have been a short position, which should have been manually closed literally half an hour later after the price had settled above the critical line. The loss was 15 points. However, one should also open a long position the moment when the price settled above the Kijun-sen line, which subsequently brought a good profit. To be more precise, about 25 points, which covered the loss on the first trade. The price also bounced off the Kijun-sen line, and decreased twice during the day, however, according to Stop Loss, the long position still did not close, since the price did not fall so low. Although it would have closed just 1-2 points. But I was lucky.
The GBP/USD pair left the rising channel on the hourly timeframe, but was unable to continue the downward movement, but instead returned to the 1.3886 level, rebounded from it and formed a kind of "double top" pattern. Yesterday, the quotes also failed to settle below the Kijun-sen line, so the pair could not go down again. Thus, it looks like there will be a third attempt to break the 1.3886 level. We still expect the upward trend to resume. We also continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels: 1.3677, 1.3732, 1.3785 - 1.3794, 1.3886, 1.3948. Senkou Span B (1.3784) and Kijun-sen (1.3806) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. On Tuesday, September 14, the UK will publish quite important reports on unemployment, claims for jobless benefits, as well as on the level of average earnings. They can provoke a certain market reaction early in the morning. In the afternoon - the US inflation report, which is even more important and may also provoke a tangible market reaction. Thus, today should be more volatile than yesterday.
The GBP/USD pair gained 80 points during the last reporting week (August 31 - September 6). The most important group of non-commercial traders continues to decrease their net position, and their mood is becoming increasingly bearish. These changes are clearly visible on the indicators in the chart above. The first indicator clearly shows that the green line (the net position of the "non-commercial" group) has already gone below the zero level and continues to decline. Simply put, the mood of the major players has already changed to bearish and is now only getting stronger. However, we still cannot conclude that the upward trend is over due to the too weak correction against this trend (recall: only 23.6%). It is the weakness of the correction over the past six months that does not allow us to conclude that a new downward trend has begun to form, and not just a correction. Thus, the major players continue to sell off the pound, while the currency itself, after three attempts, could not even go below the target area of 1.3600-1.3666. Therefore, we believe that in the first place in terms of importance is the factor of infusion of hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy by the Federal Reserve, which ensures the depreciation of the dollar in the long run and does not allow it to strengthen too much in the short term. During the reporting week, non-commercial traders closed 5.5 thousand buy contracts (longs) and opened 2.5 thousand sell contracts (shorts). But despite the fact that the major players are bearish, this does not help the pound/dollar pair to continue moving below 1.3600.
