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September 3, 2021

Traders anticipate NonFarm Payrolls

 The US currency has extended losses in recent weeks against the euro and the pound sterling. Its decline is associated with the fact that market participants were disappointed with neutral speech of Jerome Powell who did not say anything new at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In addition, some Fed members changed their hawkish rhetoric on the tapering of the QE program to a more dovish one. Policymakers were worried about the surge of coronavirus cases in the United States as it may affect the recovery of the economy and the labor market. The ADP Employment Change report has already been released this week, showing a much weaker reading compared to the forecast. Although the ADP and NonFarm Payrolls reports almost never correlate with each other, market participants are concerned that the labor market situation may worsen. The US stock indexes constantly reach their absolute highs or stay in close proximity to them. We have already said that the main driver for the growth of US stock indices is the Fed's bond-buying program. Its volume and timing depends on the pace of recovery of the US labor market. The NonFarm Payrolls report which is considered to be the most important barometer on the health of the US economy, is due today. If the data turns out to be positive, the stock market may weaken. The robust recovery of the labor market is a signal for the Fed to reduce its monthly asset purchases. Naturally, it will take time for the regulator to taper the QE program and cancel all injections into the economy. However, the volume of freshly printed dollars will decrease.


Thus, if the NonFarm Payrolls report is strong, stock indexes are unlikely to plunge. However, it will be difficult for them to maintain rally. The US dollar, on the contrary, may assert strength amid upbeat NonFarm Payrolls data. So, now traders want to make sure that the labor market continues to recover at a very high pace and the new wave of the pandemic does not undermine it. In my opinion, the NonFarm Payrolls depot is highly likely to be weaker than forecasts. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the actual value exceeded the forecast value for two consecutive months. Secondly, over the past two months, the number of new jobs has increased by almost 2 million and these were the highest figures since September 2019. Thirdly, in August, the outbreak of the Delta and other strains took place showing the low effectiveness of vaccines. Thus, I believe that today the indicator will be lower than the forecast (750,000).