October 7, 2021

Early Hints From This ADP Data Make The Market Optimistic!

 U.S. private employment reported more than expected in September following declining cases of pandemic infection. This allows Americans to travel, visit restaurants and do activities that require close contact.

The increase in private employment increased by 568,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report reported on Wednesday. The revised August data recorded a lower reading with only 340,000 jobs successfully added compared to the initial reading of 374,000. The September reading also far surpassed the target set by economists of 428,000.

The ADP report, developed in conjunction with Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) Analytics, is a report that provides an initial overview of employment ahead of the release of a more comprehensive report on Friday.

JPMorgan economist Daniel Silver however warns that this ADP data is only a preliminary picture and it is not an accurate predictor for NFP data.

On the other hand economists at Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Securities found data showed employees were starting to return to work as usual with land and air travel increasing. They noted that credit and debit card data also showed a higher increase in new purchases and a decrease in refunds, "this is a sign that people are starting to engage in recreational activities, which coincides with a drop in Covid-19 cases."

Labor market indicators were mixed in September. A survey from the Conference Hall last week showed consumer views on the current weakening labor market conditions. On the other hand, the number of people on the state unemployment register decreased in mid -September compared to mid -August.

Based on a survey conducted by Reuter of economists, NFP data is expected to add 490,000 jobs.