The GBP/USD pair traded rather strangely again on October 7. Again, the price moved in completely different ways in different periods of the day. For example, in the first half of the day, quotes were inside a horizontal channel, limited by the levels of 1.3570 and 1.3607, that is, a rather narrow horizontal channel. The boundaries of this channel were reached several times, and after lunch an upward movement began. We can't say it was strong, nevertheless the nature of the movement was different from what we saw in the European trading session. But, given the almost flat movement in the morning, many great trading signals were generated. No macroeconomic report or fundamental event during the day. Therefore, let's start analyzing trading signals.
Since the Senkou Span B line and the 1.3570 level were located very close to each other, they should be considered together with each other as a support area. For the first time, the price bounced off this support area at the very beginning of Europe, which was a buy signal. The price rose to the level of 1.3601 and bounced off it, so the long position should have been closed at 10 points of profit and one should have immediately opened a short position. The price immediately dropped back to the level of 1.3570 and bounced off it, so here it was necessary to close a short position and open a new long position. Another plus 10 points. Further, the price repeated at least two more exactly the same movements with the same rebounds, which allowed traders to earn a few more points of profit. It is important to disassemble the fifth buy signal in the form of a rebound only from the Senkou Span B line. After its formation, the price went above the 1.3601-1.3607 area, having gone up more than 20 points in total. Therefore, for this deal, it was necessary to set Stop Loss at breakeven. However, the deal could have been closed after the price had settled below the level of 1.3601 in profit, again a few points. In theory, a short position should have been reopened here, but this signal has already turned out to be false, the first of the day. The price turned upward almost immediately and went back above 1.3607. Therefore, a short position was closed at a loss of 20 points, and traders had to open the last trade of the day - a buy - on the last signal. This trade brought in about 20 points in profit and should have been manually closed in the late afternoon. Thus, in total it was possible to earn several dozen points yesterday.
The pound/dollar pair is trying to continue the upward trend on the hourly timeframe. The price settled above two important lines, Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen. Therefore, at this time, we can consider the possibility of building an upward trend line. However, we would like to remind you that the current fundamental background is very contradictory for both the dollar and the pound. For example, the euro/dollar pair has been continuing a rather long downward movement. If the pound starts an upward trend, it turns out that there will be no correlation between the two major pairs. We distinguish the following important levels on October 8: 1.3519, 1.3570, 1.3601 - 1.3607, 1.3732. Senkou Span B (1.3580) and Kijun-sen (1.3558) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. There will be no major events or publications in the UK on Friday. But the United States will publish the Nonfarm report, which traders have been waiting for from the very beginning of the week. The pound is now moving quite actively without this report. Therefore, a reaction should certainly be expected, but it is unlikely that it will form a trend for the pair. The rest of the US reports will be of lesser significance.
Major players slightly strengthened their bullish mood during the last reporting week (September 21-27). Although it is now as neutral as possible in fact. The fact is that the value of the net position for the non-commercial group of traders is now around zero, which means equality between the number of open long and short positions in the pound. Consequently, neither bulls nor bears have the initiative. Moreover, in the last couple of months, the mood of professional traders has been constantly changing, as the net position is either increasing or decreasing. Thus, from our point of view, the conclusion is obvious: the COT reports do not indicate either bullish or bearish sentiment now. Changes in the non-commercial group were minimal. 5.5 thousand buy contracts (longs) and 4.5 thousand sell contracts (shorts) were opened during the reporting week. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,000. If in the case of the European currency, the COT reports signal a very likely further fall, then in the case of the pound, the COT reports just indicate the neutral mood of traders. The picture above shows a clear downward trend, but the problem is that professional players do not continue selling the British currency. Consequently, further decline is not evident for the pound. Take note that the euro corrected by about 43% against the upward trend, and the pound - by 24%.
