The EUR/USD pair passed from the low to the high of the day a little less than 40 points on Wednesday. Thus, the technical picture over the past day has not changed at all. Not only did the pair continue to trade exclusively sideways, it also began to ignore the lines of the last horizontal channel. Thus, even the forex guru would not find trading signals during the day. There is still no trend on the 30-minute timeframe. Accordingly, there is no trend line now, no trend channel. But today there was macroeconomic statistics and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. There is probably no need to pay attention since there was no market reaction to these events. In the chart below, all the most important events of the day are marked with check marks. The first two events hit the flat in a 16-point channel, the last event - the ISM business activity report in the US service sector - seemed to cause the euro/dollar to turn upward. But this index turned out to be much stronger than forecasts and was supposed to provoke a strengthening of the dollar (that is, a fall in the euro/dollar pair).
On the 5-minute timeframe, Wednesday's movement does not raise any questions. The pair was flat during most of the trading day - the price circled around the level of 1.1585. Thus, short positions should not have been opened even when the quotes went slightly below this horizontal channel. If only because the probability of low volatility and outright flat remained. Plus, this departure took place just 45 minutes before the publication of the ISM index, which is considered a fairly important indicator. Moreover, its actual value (66.7) was not in line with the forecast (61.9), which should have provoked a reaction from traders. However, as we can see at the end of the day, traders saved their strength until the very evening. Because the results of the Federal Reserve meeting will be announced in half an hour, and in another half hour a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will begin. Most likely, volatility will increase at this time, but novice traders should have already left the market, as uncontrolled and unpredictable movements may begin soon. Recall that the Fed is now expected to announce the curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program. If these words sound, then the euro/dollar pair may rush down.
Volatility continues to remain very low on the 30-minute timeframe, and at this time there is no trend or horizontal channel. Therefore, the current movement is generally very difficult to describe in words: it is neither sideways nor trendy. The 30-minute TF is still not very convenient to trade, and we still do not recommend tracking signals from the MACD indicator. We advise you to wait for the formation of a trend line or trend channel. On the 5-minute timeframe, the key levels for November 4 are 1.1535, 1.1585, 1.1617 - 1.1622. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. On Thursday, we advise novice traders to pay attention to Lagarde's speech and the economic forecast from the European Commission. With a 70% probability, these events will not be noticed by the markets, which will continue to be impressed by the results of the Fed meeting, but nevertheless, at this time, changes in the movements of the pair should be expected.
