We’ve got retail sales data from China, Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. this week, along with highly-anticipated CPI releases.
Ready to make trading plans for these reports?
Don’t forget to review which factors drove forex market price action last week, too!
Major Economic Events:
Chinese data dump (Nov. 15, 2:00 am GMT) – Volatility could pick up early in the week since China is scheduled to release a bunch of top-tier reports.
For the month of October, retail sales likely dipped from 4.4% to 3.8% on a year-over-year basis while fixed asset investment probably fell from 7.3% to 6.3%.
Industrial production probably took a hit due to supply chain issues as well, falling from 3.1% to 3.0% year-over-year.
RBA monetary policy meeting minutes (Nov. 16, 12:30 am GMT) – The Australian central bank kept interest rates on hold as expected in their latest rate decision.
However, the RBA also removed its yield curve control target on the April 2024 government bond since it is “losing credibility.” The transcript of their meeting should provide more insight on when policymakers think their first tightening move might happen.
U.S. retail sales (Nov. 16, 1:30 pm GMT) – A pickup in consumer spending is eyed for October, with the headline figure slated to rise from 0.7% to 1.2% and the core reading to climb from 0.8% to 1.0%.
The rebound in auto sales likely spurred a strong showing for last month’s retail sales figure, buoyed by an improvement in the labor market situation as well.
U.K. CPI (Nov. 17, 7:00 am GMT) – Another surge in U.K. inflation is eyed, with the headline CPI projected to have climbed from 3.1% to 3.8% in October.
This might be enough to spark BOE rate hike bets once more, as stagflation remains a persistent threat in the U.K. economy.
Canadian CPI (Nov. 17, 1:30 pm GMT) – The Great White North is also due to print its inflation figures this week, along with related indicators of price pressures.
Headline CPI is projected to have advanced by 0.7% or from 4.4% to 4.6% year-over-year in October. Stronger than expected results might also fuel tightening expectations for the BOC.
Canadian retail sales (Nov. 19, 1:30 pm GMT) – Also lined up from Canada are its retail sales figures for October, with the headline reading projected to have dropped by 1.7% and the core version likely to have posted another 2.8% gain.
Forex Setup of the Week: GBP/CAD
Don’t look now, but GBP/CAD is sitting at the very bottom of its long-term range seen on the daily time frame!
A bounce off support around the 1.6850 minor psychological mark could send the pair back to the top of the range or at least until the area of interest at the middle.
Stochastic is making its way out of the oversold region – with a bullish divergence to boot! – suggesting that buyers are returning.
However, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to hint that support is more likely to break than to hold. If GBP/CAD falls through the floor, it could be in for a tumble that’s the same height as the range.
In any case, better keep close tabs on the retail sales and CPI releases from the U.K. and Canada to gauge where this pair might be headed next.
