November 8, 2021

The Week Ahead in FX (Nov. 8 – 12): U.S. CPI and Australian Jobs Report Due

 We’ve got a few top-tier reports on this week’s docket, including inflation data from the U.S. and jobs figures from Australia.

Central bankers are scheduled to give speeches early in the week, too.

Ready to make trading plans for the next few days? Don’t forget to review which factors drove forex market price action last week, too!

Major Economic Events:

FOMC members’ testimonies (starting Nov. 8, 2:00 pm GMT) – Several U.S. central bank officials have speeches lined up this week, so better keep your ears peeled for any policy hints!

On Monday, FOMC officials Clarida, Bowman, and Evans are all scheduled to deliver speeches in separate events. Fed head Powell himself is due to give opening remarks in an online conference the next day as well.

Later in the week, FOMC member Williams is set to speak at an online symposium hosted by the Federal Bank of New York.

U.S. CPI (Nov. 10, 1:30 pm GMT) – Headline inflation is expected to have picked up from 0.4% to 0.5% in October while the core version of the report likely advanced from 0.2% to 0.4%.

Stronger than expected figures could bolster the case for earlier rate hikes next year while weak results could dash hopes of seeing higher borrowing costs soon.

Australian jobs report (Nov. 11, 12:30 am GMT) – After printing a disappointing 138K drop in hiring for September, the labor market could post a rebound of 50K positions last month.

However, the unemployment rate might still rise from 4.6% to 4.8% for the month. Traders would likely pay closer attention to wage growth, labor force participation, and underemployment figures to gauge if weak spots are still present.

Forex Setup of the Week: AUD/USD

Among the economic catalysts lined up this week, the Australian jobs report might be worth trying to trade.

AUD/USD is already in an uptrend, cruising inside a newly-forming ascending trend channel on its 4-hour time frame. Can the rally carry on?

Price is in the middle of a correction to the mid-channel area of interest, which lines up with the 38.2% to 50% Fib levels.

A larger pullback could reach the 61.8% Fib just slightly above the .7300 handle or the channel support closer to the .7250 minor psychological mark.

Technical indicators are suggesting that the climb is likely to resume since the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA and Stochastic is pulling higher from the oversold region.

A strong jobs release might be enough to spur gains for AUD/USD later in the week, especially if Uncle Sam doesn’t print any upside surprises with the CPI report.