December 30, 2021

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for December 30. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals. A correction was planned for the pound, but the bulls destroyed the hopes of the bears

 The GBP/USD pair has already started a downward correction on Tuesday, but a rebound from the level of 1.3406 provoked a new rise in the British currency, which has grown by almost 300 points over the past two weeks without a single pullback. It is difficult for us to judge to what extent this growth of the British currency is justified from a fundamental point of view, but from a technical point of view, it is justified. There were no macroeconomic statistics or fundamental events in either the UK or the US on Wednesday. Those reports in the United States, which we talked about in the euro/dollar article, could only theoretically provoke such a market reaction, but in any case, a strong movement began before they were published. Moreover, in a few hours. Thus, most likely, they have nothing to do with it. The pound/dollar pair also showed impressive volatility of almost 100 points. The only difference is that the upward trend is maintained for the pound, while the flat remains for the euro. Only one trading signal was generated. And it requires a detailed analysis, since it was rather complex and ambiguous. At first glance, all is well, as the price bounced off the 1.3406 level. But at a second glance, everything is not very good, because the price did not reach 2 points to this level. This error could be neglected and you could still open long positions, only the 1.3406 level lost its relevance a day earlier, when the price completely ignored it. Further, on the 4-hour TF it is clearly seen that at the same moment the price still bounced, but from the critical line of Kijun-sen, which began to grow sharply. We cannot display its change during the day as a single line on a 5-minute timeframe, but still there was a rebound from it, so a long position should still be opened. And it turned out to be profitable, as the price subsequently rose to the resistance level of 1.3498, from which it made a perfect rebound. Thus, the trade should have been closed around this level for a profit of about 66 points.


On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair corrected to the upward trend line and bounced off it. Thus, a buy signal was formed yesterday on the hourly TF, which could also be worked out. So far, the upward trend continues, and the pound continues to grow, but it would be high time to correct downward. If the price moves below the trendline, then the bears will come into play. We distinguish the following important levels on December 30: 1.3362, 1.3513, 1.3570. Senkou Span B (1.3302) and Kijun-sen (1.3443) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. No important publications or events in the UK and the United States on Thursday. However, lately, the pound does not need them to show a rather volatile movement and trend.


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The mood of commercial traders was much more bearish during the last reporting week (December 7-13). Commercial traders closed 6,700 sell contracts (shorts) and 20,100 buy contracts (longs) during the week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 13,400 contracts, which is a lot for the pound. Thus, unlike the euro currency, the pound, according to COT reports, continues to fall quite reasonably: major players continue to sell it. However, the green and red lines of the first indicator (which mean the net positions of the non-commercial and commercial groups) have already moved far away from each other. Recall that such a deletion signals the imminent end of the trend. However, as with any fundamental assumptions, specific technical signals are required to work out this hypothesis, which are not currently available. If we do not take into account the increase in the key rate by the Bank of England, then there are no special fundamental reasons for the growth of the pound now either. Recall that Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to get into various scandals in Great Britain and there is already talk that he will leave his post before the end of the deadline. The pandemic in the UK is gaining momentum and the other day an anti-record was set for the daily number of infections. Omicron is also spreading quite rapidly across the country, creating additional risks for the healthcare system and the economy. London, on the other hand, cannot find a common language with Paris and Brussels, which threatens it with the deterioration of relations with its closest neighbors and the loss of markets for the sale of products. But there is no positive news.