December 28, 2021

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for December 28. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals. The pound was still able to rise slightly against the dollar

 The GBP/USD pair continued moving between the levels of 1.3389 and 1.3417 on Monday. "Continued" - because it started doing it on Friday. Thus, in the morning, at the European trading session on Monday, traders should not have any doubts as to which movement the pound/dollar pair is currently in. Inside the absolute flat. Nevertheless, despite the low volatility, the price was still able to leave the indicated horizontal channel in the US trading session, and even a little later - to form a buy signal. This happened when the pair bounced off the extremum level of 1.3406, which is losing its relevance since today. Nevertheless, the buy signal should have been worked out with a long position, as it turned out to be quite accurate and clear. The price managed to rise after it by 17 points and that is exactly how much traders could earn on Monday. Well, very good. There were no statistics and important fundamental events yesterday, either in the UK or in the United States. The holidays go on...


On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair continues to remain within the upward trend that formed last week. And even resumed the upward movement, although the volatility at this time is very low. Nevertheless, until the pair's quotes settle below the trend line, the pound retains excellent chances of succeeding growth against the dollar. This growth still doesn't look very reasonable from a fundamental perspective, but now there is no "foundation". We highlight the following important levels on December 28: 1.3276, 1.3362, 1.3513. Senkou Span B (1.3272) and Kijun-sen (1.3329) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. The calendars of macroeconomic events are empty in the UK and the United States on Tuesday, so there will be no influence of the "foundation" on the movement of the pound/dollar pair. Nevertheless, the pair may continue to show good volatility, as well as maintain the upward trend of the last week or two.


The mood of commercial traders was much more bearish during the last reporting week (December 7-13). Commercial traders closed 6,700 sell contracts (shorts) and 20,100 buy contracts (longs) during the week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 13,400 contracts, which is a lot for the pound. Thus, unlike the euro currency, the pound, according to COT reports, continues to fall quite reasonably: major players continue to sell it. However, the green and red lines of the first indicator (which mean the net positions of the non-commercial and commercial groups) have already moved far away from each other. Recall that such a deletion signals the imminent end of the trend. However, as with any fundamental assumptions, specific technical signals are required to work out this hypothesis, which are not currently available. If we do not take into account the increase in the key rate by the Bank of England, then there are no special fundamental reasons for the growth of the pound now either. Recall that Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to get into various scandals in Great Britain and there is already talk that he will leave his post before the end of the deadline. The pandemic in the UK is gaining momentum and the other day an anti-record was set for the daily number of infections. Omicron is also spreading quite rapidly across the country, creating additional risks for the healthcare system and the economy. London, on the other hand, cannot find a common language with Paris and Brussels, which threatens it with the deterioration of relations with its closest neighbors and the loss of markets for the sale of products. But there is no positive news.