The EUR/USD currency pair was not trading in the best way again on Friday. Firstly, the markets have not yet moved away from the report on US inflation, which was published on Thursday. Secondly, the very nature of the movement was not the best. It should be noted right away that it was the US inflation report that was the key this week and caused strong, volatile movements. They are very clearly visible in the illustration above. As you can see, the pair first fell, then grew, then fell even more. This means that the reaction to the report was overlapped by other factors, possibly of a technical nature. In particular, large pending sell orders could be placed near the level of 1.1483, and when the price reached this level, they worked. There is nothing else to explain the "swing" on Thursday. It is also very difficult to explain why the dollar was falling immediately after the report, and not growing. Thus, the market is now unbalanced, which affects both the movements and the quality of trading signals. Important macroeconomic statistics have not been published either in the US or in the EU. The only report of the day – the consumer sentiment index in the US was supposed to provoke a fall in the dollar, but at that time the US currency was just growing.
The movement also doesn't look that good on the 5-minute timeframe. During the day, traders could not come to a common opinion on the question of what to do with the euro/dollar pair. But it's good that there weren't very many signals, otherwise most of them would have been false. The first buy signal was formed when the price rebounded from the level of 1.1375. After that, the price went up about 35 points and was not far from the level of 1.1418 almost until the evening. Therefore, novice traders had plenty of time to close deals to buy in profit. By the way, the level of 1.1418 has not been on the charts yet, since this is the peak of Friday. Although a rather formal peak. The next signal - for sale - was formed already a few hours before the market closed, in the evening, so it clearly should not have been traded. The price consolidated below the levels of 1.1375 and 1.1360, and also worked out the level of 1.1330. It seems to be a pretty good signal, but it was formed too late. And besides, it is very difficult to explain what caused such a movement of the pair a few hours before the market closed. Moreover, the pound/dollar pair was also falling at that time.
How to trade on Monday:
The upward trend persists on the 30-minute timeframe, but it remains purely formal. The price again failed to overcome the level of 1.1483, and earlier it was fixed below the ascending trend line, so the pair's prospects are now descending. In addition, the fundamental background also speaks in favor of the fall of the euro currency, since the ECB has again shown its passivity and unwillingness to raise the key rate. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1,1279-1,1292, 1,1330, 1,1360-1,1375, 1,1418, 1,1449. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. On Monday, there will be absolutely nothing to pay attention to either in the States or in the European Union. The event calendar is empty. Thus, volatility may be weak tomorrow.
