Preliminary analysis from analysts found that the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war will grow however slowly in addition to higher inflation. On the other hand, the European economy could be on the brink of recession and the Russian economy will decline by up to 2 percentage digits.
14 forecasters in CNBC Rapid Update expect the U.S. economy to grow by 3.2% this year with growth of just 0.3% in February. Inflation for personal consumption spending, the Fed’s preferred indicator, is seen rising by 4.3% this year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous survey in February.
Analysts (forecasters) warn that so far it has been quite difficult to assess how the U.S. economy will react to the shock of oil prices that soared above $ 126 a barrel. Most see risks to their forecasts leaning towards higher inflation and lower growth.
According to economists, the exclusion of Russian oil from global supply could lead to further economic contraction. An update from CNBC shows U.S. growth. could increase to 3.5% in the second quarter from 1.9% in the first quarter. But the second -quarter estimate was down 0.8 percentage points from the previous survey.
Inflation estimates are 1.7 percentage points higher for this quarter and 1.6 percentage points for the next. Inflation is expected to decline from 4.3% this year to 2.4% by the end of the year.
Generally see U.S. economic growth will be sustained.
