Thursday morning, the EUR/USD currency pair tried to continue the upward movement that it started the day before. Recall that the euro started to sharply rise last night, the reasons for which are still very difficult to explain. Today we have made the assumption that this growth could be a "trap" before the European Central Bank meeting. And when the results of the meeting were announced, the movement began, which in principle should not have been. What it looks like: the ECB meeting from the very beginning did not imply a change in the parameters of monetary policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at the press conference did not imply a tightening of rhetoric. That is, there should be no market reaction to such results of the meeting at all. But since yesterday the euro currency out of the blue increased by 110 points, today the market "owed" the dollar and at a completely "passing" meeting of the ECB, a powerful drop in the euro currency occurred. Note that the key ECB rates remained unchanged, that is, at their lowest levels. Lagarde said that the quantitative easing program of the APP will be in effect until the third quarter of 2022. All this is dovish rhetoric, but such rhetoric has long been known to everyone. The euro did not have a single chance to show growth against the dollar using such information.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the movement during the day does not need any comments or explanations. Before the results of the meeting were announced, the pair traded quite calmly, after that it fell. The first trading signal was formed when the price settled below the level of 1.0905 and it was at this time that information began to arrive. Since the results were dovish, the probability of a fall in the euro was very high, so the sell signal could be worked out. Subsequently, the price went down about 120 points, overcame the levels of 1.0837 and 1.0806 and could not form a single buy signal, which also acted as a signal to close short positions. Therefore, it was possible to manually close a single short position after a rebound from the 1.0806 level (the last signal). As a result, this transaction could bring about 90 points of profit.
How to trade on Friday:
The trend remains downward on the 30-minute timeframe. Yesterday's trend line was canceled very quickly, but we warned that it was weak. Earlier, the horizontal channel was also canceled. The pair is trading very erratically, without a clear trend, without a trend line and continues to settle near its 15-month lows, slowly starting to look towards multi-year lows near the 1.06 level. We believe that the euro will continue to fall in the near future. Moreover, the 1.0806 level was eventually overcome today. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.0727, 1.0758, 1.0806, 1.0837, 1.0905, 1.0938, 1.0966. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events are planned in the European Union, and in the United States on Friday – only a report on industrial production, which is not important in the current circumstances. Thus, Friday's volatility may be much lower than on Thursday or Wednesday, but the pair is likely to try to continue falling.
