The EUR/USD currency pair was not traded on Friday. The pair stood in one place all day, just above the 1.0806 level. The volatility of the day was 33 points. Only the report on industrial production in the United States can be distinguished among the macroeconomic events, which, as it is easy to guess, had no effect on the pair's movement. Thus, it was absolutely impossible to trade the pair on Friday. Plus, a flat... And what do we end up with after the week has ended? The euro/dollar pair continues to remain near its 15-month lows. That is, the downward trend continues. The macroeconomic background has a slight impact on the pair's movement, but at the same time it supports the dollar more than the euro. The fundamental background, which is now expressed by monetary policies and plans of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, is also entirely on the dollar's side. The geopolitical factor, despite some lull in the fighting in Ukraine, is a negative factor for risky currencies (that is, for the euro). That is, all factors now support the dollar, so we believe that this currency will continue to grow in the coming weeks. The nature of the pair's movement is as complex as possible, at this time there is still no trend line or channel (at least sideways) to have clear trend guidelines.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture is clear and understandable to the point of outrage. There was a sideways movement all day. Volatility at 21 points was shown in the European trading session, and 15 points in the US trading session. Three buy signals were generated during the day. The price first bounced off the 1.0806 level, and then bounced off it twice more, never trying to settle below it. Therefore, novice players could open long positions at the very first buy signal. They could be closed at any time. Most likely, zero profit was made on this transaction. Nothing more can be said about trading operations and movement on Friday.
How to trade on Monday:
The trend remains downward on the 30-minute timeframe. The downward trend line was reversed very quickly, but we warned that it was weak and short-term. The horizontal channel was also canceled earlier. The pair is trading very erratically, without a clear trend, without a trend line and continues to settle near its 15-month lows, slowly starting to "aim" for 5-year lows near the level of 1.0636. We believe that the euro will continue to fall in the near future. Moreover, the last local low - the 1.0806 level - was eventually broken. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.0727, 1.0758, 1.0806, 1.0837, 1.0905, 1.0938, 1.0966. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. There are no important events and reports scheduled for Monday in the European Union and the United States. Of course, it is unlikely that the pair will trade with a volatility of 30 points for two consecutive days. Most likely, traders will continue to be active, at least a bit. But we would not count on strong and trending movements tomorrow.
