March NFP Readings Missed From Expectations, Is This A Poor Signal?

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 Amid rising inflation and then compounded by concerns over an economic recession, the U.S. economy managed to add a number of jobs albeit slightly more than expected in March. This indicates that the development of the labor market is increasingly limited.


The NFP reading grew by 431,000 in March, while the unemployment rate was 3.6%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. This reading is also lower than expected by economists who are targeting 490,000 jobs and 3.7% unemployment rate.


An alternative unemployment measure that also counts those working part -time was found to fall 0.3% from the previous month to 6.9%. Average hourly earnings, which is also a notable measure, increased 0.4% during the month, in line with expectations. On a 12 -month basis, wages rose nearly 5.6%, in line with estimates.



Among the biggest contributors to the increase in jobs came from the recreation and hospitality sectors which created 112,000 jobs. Professional and business services accounted for 102,000, while the retail sector grew by 49,000.


The household survey showed a more optimistic picture, showing a total employment turnover of 736,000. That brings the total employment level in the range of 408,000 from pre-pandemic levels.


Finally, economic growth in gross domestic product is not expected to be much in the first quarter. Market attention continues to be focused on inflation data. The market is now expecting rate hikes at each of the Fed’s six meetings this year.

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