The EUR/USD pair showed an absolutely "toothless" movement and a new attempt to continue moving upwards. However, the main movement occurred at night, and during the day the pair practically stood in one place. Moreover, the price is currently between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. Therefore, the trend is now purely formal. There is no trend line, no channel, and the move up last week was based "on emotions". That is, the market can easily return to a downward trend as soon as it remembers that there were no special reasons for buying the euro, and there are none. Thus, it is best to focus on the lines of the Ichimoku indicator for some time. Since there is no pronounced flat now, these lines remain strong. The probability of further growth of the euro increases above the Senkou Span B. While the probability of dollar growth increases below the critical line. Not a single important macroeconomic report was published on Monday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, but even the pair's movement clearly shows that there was no reaction to it.
As for the trading signals on Monday, everything is simple - there were none. Even at night, the quotes rebounded from the critical line and the level of 1.0478, but this signal was formed at night, so there was no way to work it out. During the day, the price no longer approached any line or level.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro raised a lot of questions. Recall that in the past few months, they showed a blatant bullish mood of professional players, but the euro fell all the time. At this time, the situation is beginning to change, and again, not in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, but the euro was falling, now the mood has become bearish... During the reporting week, the number of long positions decreased by 23,200, while the number of shorts in the non-commercial group increased by 33,300. Thus, the net position fell by 56,500 contracts in just a week. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that now even major players do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is now lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 6,000. Therefore, we can well expect that now not only the demand for the US dollar will remain strong, but also the demand for the euro will decline. Again, this may lead to an even greater fall in the euro. In principle, over the past few months or even more, the euro has not been able to show even a strong correction, not to mention something more. Its highest upward movement was about 400 points. All fundamental, geopolitical factors remain in favor of the US dollar.
It is also clearly visible on the hourly timeframe that the euro is trying to continue the upward movement started last year, but so far little has been achieved. There will be few important events this week, so if traders are set to buy the pair, then we will see them. If not, then the US dollar is likely to resume its massive long-term appreciation. Today, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.0340-1.0359, 1.0400, 1.0485, 1.0579, 1.0637, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0585) and Kijun-sen (1 .0478). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "overcoming" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important or even just interesting event is planned for June 21 either in Europe or in the US. The sluggish growth of the European currency may continue, but below the Senkou Span B line, the outlook for the euro remains vague.
