U.S. markets are out on bank holiday today, which means traders will likely trade risk sentiment or tomorrow’s events.
Wanna see what AUD/CAD looks like before RBA’s event?
Before moving on, ICYMI, I’ve listed the potential economic catalysts that you need to watch out for this week. Check them out before you place your first trades today!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Australia’s job ads up by 1.4% to new highs since 2008
Australia building approvals jump 9.9% on month in May vs. -1.8% expected, -2.4% in April
Iran slashes the cost of its oil to compete with Russia in China
Export decline in May drags Germany to its first trade deficit since 1991
Swiss inflation hits 29-year high of 3.4% in June
Oil slips as recession fears balance tight supply
Eurozone producer inflation eases from record high
China, HK to launch rate ‘Swap Connect’ in boost to financial integration
Energy shares boost European equities ahead of inflation data
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
U.S. markets out on bank holiday
Switzerland’s CPI at 6:30 am GMT
Eurozone’s PPI at 9:00 am GMT
Canada’s manufacturing PMI at 1:30 pm GMT
BOC business outlook survey at 2:30 pm GMT
AU AIG construction index at 10:30 pm GMT
Japan’s average cash earnings at 11:30 pm GMT
AU retail sales at 1:30 am GMT (Jul 5)
China’s Caixin services PMI at 1:45 am GMT (Jul 5)
RBA statement at 4:30 am GMT (Jul 5)
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: AUD/CAD
U.S. traders are out on bank holiday today, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see legit volatility!
I’m looking at AUD/CAD because the pair has been on a downtrend since mid-June. More importantly, it’s hitting key inflection points ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s event.
In case you missed the weekly economic events preview, markets expect RBA to raise its interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.35% in the next Asian session trading.
Hawkish bets and lower oil prices are probably why AUD/CAD has climbed from its .8750 lows to its current prices near .8825.
Thing is, .8825 lines up with a trend line resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of last week’s downswing.
If more traders price in RBA’s rate hike and a possibly hawkish statement, then AUD/CAD could extend its upswing all the way to the .8850 levels closer to the 1-hour chart’s 100 SMA.
If we see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news situation, though, or if oil prices jump in the next couple of hours, then AUD/CAD could extend its weeks-long downtrend.
AUD/CAD could drop from its current levels and test its July lows.
What do you think? Which way will AUD/CAD go before and after RBA’s decision?
