Jobless Claims Data Rises Moderately, Is This a Sign of a Slowing Labor Market?

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 The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week, suggesting that the labor market is slowing.


Initial claims for state jobless benefits rose 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ending April 15. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week.


A combination of spring break, which left support staff in some school districts temporarily out of work, and hasty layoffs in technology and interest-rate-sensitive sectors, may have accounted for some of last week's rise in claims.


Although the labor market is slowing, current data still suggest employment growth remains strong, allowing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month, before ending the US central bank's fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s.



The Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday described job gains as "somewhat modest" in early April "as some areas reported slower growth rates" compared to recent reports.


Although the Beige Book reported that some counties indicated that banks are tightening lending standards, that has yet to be reflected in economic data, including jobless claims data. Tighter credit conditions usually act as a slowdown in the economy.


Economists expect the effects to be felt in the coming months and many are predicting a recession by the second half of 2023.


The claims data covers the period when the government surveyed households for the NFP data section of the April jobs report. Claims changed little between the March and April survey weeks. The economy created 236,000 jobs in March, more than double what was needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.


Continuing claims remain low by historical standards as some laid-off workers quickly find jobs. There were 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in February.

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