FOMC: Interest Rates & Indicators By Jerome Powell


 The opening of November in the first week will witness important data to guide the direction of the market for the 4th quarter of 2023.

As you already know early in the morning, the Fed will announce interest rates and the market is also looking forward to the speech after the Fed's announcement which will provide an indication of the monetary policy formation strategy in the FOMC meeting.

At the opening session of the New York market, employment data will be announced, namely the "ADP payrolls report" for October and, September, "job openings numbers", and the latest data from the "ISM manufacturing survey".

The employment data that will be announced later will provide an indication of the direction of the labor market, especially the unemployment rate and "NonFarm Payrolls (NFP)" that will be released on Friday this week.

Last September, the Fed temporarily stopped raising interest rates, which remained at 5.50%.

At the last September FOMC meeting as well, they have indicated that interest rate hikes will happen for the last time in 2023 and the market expects it to be done at the December 2023 FOMC meeting.

Today's Market Expectations

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at 5.50%. Today's market focus is on guidance and direction for the December FOMC in Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.

However, futures markets expect a 69.1% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in December and a 29% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of 2023.

Based on our observation at Saracen Markets, if the interest rate to be announced tonight is seen to still maintain interest rates and Fed Powell's speech tonight gives a strong indication of the probability of an interest rate increase for the December FOMC meeting, it can give "Hawkish" sentiment towards US Dollar currency.