Tonight's U.S. Core PCE Data Expectations And Impact


 The "Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)" data reading will be published tonight at 9.30pm. This data is the main indicator used by the Fed in examining the current level of inflation in America. What is interesting, at the last FOMC meeting, Fed chairman Jerome Powell has given some expectations for tonight's PCE data reading. Please refer below for expected PCE data readings. Market sentiment at this point still expects interest rate cuts to start in March 2024 by 25 basis points (bps).

Jerome Powell Market Expectations Data Prior Reads

PCE MoM (Nov) 0% – 0%

PCE YoY (Nov) 2.80% 3.10% 3.00%

Core PCE MoM (Nov) 0.20% – 0.20%

Core PCE YoY (Nov) 3.30% 2.60% 3.50%

Impact of PCE Data Readings on Markets

Types of Sentiment / Market Impact Data Readings

A larger-than-expected increase in the Core PCE (MoM) reading compared to the previous reading is likely to prompt investors to lower their expectations of an interest rate cut for March 2024

There was no change in the reading of Core PCE (MoM), or the production of negative data compared to the reading before There was pressure on the Dollar Index and at the same time increased investor confidence in interest rate cuts starting March 2024

Today marks the end of this week's market where the market is on its last day before taking a break for Christmas. As such, today's trading volume is expected to decrease as well as cause aggressive movement on the market immediately after the release of PCE data tonight.