The Latest Forecast of China's Exports Again Boosts Market Hopes for Global Trade?


 China's exports are seen growing faster and rose for a second month in a row in December, according to a Reuters poll. This indirectly adds to the indication that global trade is starting to recover due to an increase in the electronics industry and the expectation of lower borrowing costs in 2024.

Exports from the world's second-largest economy are expected to have risen by 1.7% in December from a year earlier, after ending a six-month slump and growing by 0.5% in November, based on the median forecast of 32 economists cited.

Global trade slowed in 2023 as higher interest rates in the United States, Europe, and other large consumer markets squeezed demand.

The United Nations warned that trade in goods was likely to shrink by nearly $2 trillion or 8% last year. But China, South Korea, and Germany's increasingly good export data show that things are getting better.

Analysts also forecast interest rates to drop by at least 1.5 percentage points in the United States and Europe this year, which should boost demand for imported goods.

China's trade data, due out on Friday, is also expected to show imports rose by 0.3% last month, after falling 0.6% in November.

In its December Global Trade Update, the United Nations Trade Development and Conference Organization said that global trade expectations in 2024 remain "generally pessimistic."

Global trading activity, represented by the Baltic Dry Index Baltic Dry fell by 7.3% to its lowest level since Nov. 23 on Tuesday, reflecting the challenges faced by shipping companies, including external attacks.

The median estimate in the survey showed that China's trade surplus would widen, with forecasts that it would reach $74.8 billion, compared with $68.4 billion in November.