XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast: Latest Market Sentiment


 The FOMC meeting minutes published last night have had an impact on current market sentiment. Previously, market players had seen and assessed that the reduction in benefit rates would be implemented by the Fed as early as March 2024. However, meeting minutes reports have shown that the Fed sees that a longer benefit rate reduction should be implemented but does not reject implementing a reduction in benefit rates in 2024. This is At the same time, it raises a question mark in the market regarding the actual period or time for the implementation of the benefit levels that will be implemented.

The factors above have contributed to an increase in demand in the "US Treasury Yield" market, which also reduces demand for the gold market. The market will now be focused on the release of key U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) employment data this Friday.

Current Situation of the American Labor Market

Based on the employment data report published last night, job openings in the country have been seen shrinking to the lowest level since 2021. It provides information that the number of workers leaving is seen to have decreased and while the demand for jobs has also decreased. This has provided evidence that the labor market in America is on the verge of "Cooling Labor Demand". The number of jobs has decreased by 8.79 million compared to the last reported 8.85 million.

Today's Data Focus

Tonight the ADP employment data report (private sector employment report) and initial jobless claims will be the focus. Tonight's data is seen as the main clue after last night's JOLTS output on tomorrow's NFP.

Previous Range Data Period

8.30pm Challenger Job Cuts(Dec) – 45.51K

9.15pm ADP Employment Change(Dec) 115K 103K

9.30pm Initial Jobless Claims(Dec 29) 216K 218K


Technical Analysis

“Resistance becomes support” (RBS) at the price level of $2050 is seen as being the fulcrum for the gold market price. If gold prices continue to decline below this level, $2030 will be tested. However, he did not reject the possibility of gold continuing to trade low to the $2000 level.

If the $2050 price level is successfully broken, $2065 will be the first hurdle before the $2078 price level is tested once again.