XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast: Can U.S. ADP & POWELL Data Trigger a Change?


The price of gold has remained high since the opening of the trading session in early April. The Middle East geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is seen to be intensifying.

The largest oil refinery in Russia yesterday was blown up by a drone attack from Ukraine. Indirectly, the lack of world crude oil supply makes the oil market value soar.

With the drastic increase in world crude oil prices, we at SARACEN MARKETS see the potential increase in inflation readings in America will remain at the current level or increase.

In addition, economic data reports in America are now seen to show the strengthening of the economic structure in the country.

As such, this can affect the market's expectations for the FED to implement an interest rate cut in June 2024.

The American labor market is seen to be strong following yesterday's ISM and JOLTS data reports. The ADP employment data report will be reported tonight and is likely to be able to record a positive report.

FED Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak tonight at 12.10 am. Market players are expected to assess whether the increase in world commodity market prices and the strengthening of the American economy and labor market will have an impact on the implementation of interest rate cuts by the FED this year.

Technical Analysis

The demand for gold prices by investors is seen to remain the same but the buying pattern is seen to be in a cautious phase.

If the data report and speech by Fed Powell can trigger a "correction" on the gold market, $2,200 is seen to be the temporary floor price of the gold market.

But if otherwise $2,300-$2,350 will be the focus.