The United States is set to launch several trade talks in the near future to support stock markets and reduce the risk of a recession. President Donald Trump has imposed a uniform 10% tariff on most trading partners for 90 days, while offering exemptions for strategic industries to speed up discussions.
China is expected to be a major focus of the talks, although a final agreement is still far away. Trump has granted concessions on some Chinese electronics goods, while Beijing has made few concessions in response. According to BCA Research, China is expected to be ready to negotiate if economic data shows a significant impact from US tariffs.
Negotiations with close allies such as Canada, Japan and South Korea are also expected to move quickly. Domestic political factors, including elections and inflationary pressures in these countries, are expected to push them to conclude negotiations. If successful, it could cover about 28% of the US trade deficit.
In Eastern Europe, BCA expects Russia to accept a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine as the economic burden and costs of the war become unbearable. This move by Russia is expected to ease pressure on global markets, while the US maintains its military support for Ukraine.
For investors, BCA warns that geopolitical tensions and weak global economic data will continue to weigh on markets. Europe needs a major boost before it can outperform the US market.
