The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision is expected to be announced at the opening of the session on Thursday, Malaysia time.
The cryptocurrency market, which increasingly mirrors the movement of traditional stock markets, is heavily influenced by US fiscal policy and any unexpected decision could trigger a major reaction.
The US Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow, with markets awaiting key statements on the institution’s fiscal policy direction.
Experts expect the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, despite mounting political pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell.
Acting President Donald Trump has launched a series of attacks on the Fed, repeatedly saying that a rate cut is long overdue, citing the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent decision to cut interest rates again.
According to Polymarket, the probability of the Fed cutting rates on Thursday is just 1%. The next meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, and the first autumn meeting is on September 16-17. Polymarkets expects a 19% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) cut in July.
Bitcoin price has risen by around 1.6% over the past 30 days. Taken separately, this suggests that investors are in line with current expectations and are waiting for a clearer signal from the Fed.
However, the chart shows that BTC’s movement remains in an erratic pattern, with 7-8% surges in a few days followed by declines reflecting reactions to global sentiment, including geopolitical and macroeconomic crises.
Therefore, it is difficult to assess the true position of traders ahead of Thursday’s announcement. However, if history is any guide, a decision in line with expectations may not move the market drastically, while any surprises will certainly shake up Bitcoin prices and the entire crypto market.
There are growing expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September.
If this move coincides with positive developments in tensions in the Middle East and the trade war triggered by Trump’s tariffs, the global crypto industry has the potential to experience a major revival in the fourth quarter of this year
