Although US President Donald Trump has declared the trade war with China to be “over” on paper, the reality is far from over.
Here are the results of the US-China talks that took place in London on June 9-10, 2025:
Rare-earth minerals & magnets: China agreed to resume and accelerate exports of rare earth minerals and magnets that are essential to US industry. However, the export licenses granted are only for an initial period of 6 months. US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, confirmed that this agreement is expected to resolve the long-delayed supply issue.
Chinese student visas: The US will stop revoking Chinese student visas, a move that will bring relief to thousands of students and universities in the country.
US chip exports to China: There are indications that restrictions on US semiconductor technology exports to China will be eased in stages, depending on China’s level of compliance. However, high-performance chips for AI remain under tight control with no major easing reported.
The tariff structure remains heavy: The US maintains a 55% import tariff on Chinese goods, including a combination of Section 301 and MFN tariffs. China maintains a 10% retaliatory tariff on US goods. This means that the real cost is still burdening businesses and consumers.
While the outcome of the US-China talks in London appears positive, it does not mean a peaceful end for the two superpowers.
The actual date for a final decision is still up in the air, with August 10, 2025, a critical cutoff point for a comprehensive agreement.
However, behind the diplomacy, the reality of the US economy continues to struggle as high tariffs remain.
The shipping, logistics and retail sectors are showing signs of stress, with container orders falling sharply, port capacity at only around 60–75% and land transport down 13% compared to a year ago.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned that the real economic numbers could soon plummet.
The trucking and domestic manufacturing industries, two pillars of the US economy, are also struggling as demand plummets and the risk of job losses becomes more apparent.
Dean Croke, a logistics analyst, concluded that many industry players are now reluctant to make business decisions as they are still waiting for the next signal from top leaders, including through social media such as Twitter.
The war may have subsided on paper, but the economic devastation continues to burn and, as usual, the ones who are most affected are ordinary people.
