China ended the first half of 2025 with a record trade surplus of around $586 billion, supported by a recovery in exports to the United States that is starting to show signs of stability.
According to Bloomberg estimates, exports in June rose 5.8% from a year earlier to $325 billion. Meanwhile, official data from China Customs showed that imports rose 1.1%, the first growth since February.
Although shipments to the US still fell 16.1% from a year ago, it is better than the 34% drop in May, Chinese companies managed to make up for the shortfall by increasing sales to other markets.
Exports to Southeast Asian countries in the ASEAN group jumped 17%, reflecting China’s trade diversification strategy in the face of global tariff challenges.
The shift in exports from the United States helps explain the resilience of China’s manufacturing sector, while supporting a slowing domestic economy in an uncertain global trade environment.
However, the market questions how long this strength can last?
Last week, the US announced a new wave of tariffs on its trading partners, which will take effect on August 1. These include a 50% tariff on copper imports and indications that more sectoral restrictions are on the way.
Although tariffs on Chinese goods have been reduced to around 55%, down from 145% in April, Beijing is still facing significant pressure from Washington’s increasingly aggressive trade strategy.
In addition, the new US-Vietnam agreement introduces a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% duty on goods considered ‘transit’, a common tactic by Chinese exporters to evade US taxes.
The move is expected to hurt demand for Chinese products and components in global supply chains.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would meet with Chinese representatives in the near future to continue economic talks between the two superpowers.
