Wolfe Research said the latest call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled a thaw in relations, but warned that tariff relief is unlikely anytime soon.
The firm described the September 19 call as a high point, with both sides issuing optimistic statements.
Trump highlighted Xi’s approval of the TikTok framework agreement and “productive” discussions on trade, fentanyl, and Russia-Ukraine. Beijing’s statement was “pragmatic, positive, and constructive” but warned that “the US side should avoid restrictive unilateral trade measures.”
Wolfe Research wrote that Trump is now in the process of making a deal with China work, highlighting progress despite no major moves on key issues such as soybean purchases or fentanyl restrictions.
On TikTok, the US appears to be willing to accept Chinese ownership of the algorithm, while Beijing has not received relief from existing tariffs or export controls.
The research firm also highlighted a shift in the internal balance in Washington, with the dovish camp gaining influence after Trump withdrew the nomination of China hawkish figure Landon Heid to head the Commerce Department’s export control office.
However, the fentanyl tariff remains a major issue, and Wolfe Research stressed that “we cannot expect tariff relief anytime soon.”
The analyst concluded: “We do not expect further tariff relief to occur until at least Trump’s visit to China in early 2026.”
